Cost of conflict: $650m vs $250m

A full-scale ‘hot war’ between nuclear-armed Pakistan and India would result in three broad categories of economic costs: direct military expenditures, widespread economic disruptions and long-term recovery burdens. Direct military expenditures alone can be broken down into five key drivers of cost: troop mobilisation, air force sorties, naval operations, munition and artillery, and logistics and resupply.

India maintains 1.4 million active military personnel. The cost of personnel mobilization falls into three main categories: salaries, logistics, and combat allowances. If half of India’s active force -- approximately 700,000 troops -- is deployed, daily wage costs are estimated at $35 million, with an additional $20 million for food and fuel. The mobilisation of another 500,000 reserve and paramilitary forces would add approximately $15 million per day, bringing the total daily personnel mobilization cost to around $70 million.

India’s air operations, assuming the deployment of 500 aircraft conducting two sorties per day at a cost of $50,000 per sortie, would amount to approximately $50 million in daily operational expenses. The use of precision-guided munitions-assuming 10 to 15 launches-will add another $20 million to $30 million per day (BrahMos missiles are estimated to cost $3 million each).

India operating 1,000 armored units at roughly $20,000 per day will cost $20 million per day, with ammunition adding $10 million for 10,000 rounds (155mm shells at approximately $1,000 each).

India’s naval operations, including aircraft carriers, consume around $30 million daily for fuel, maintenance, and missiles (Barak-8 at $2 million each).Fuel requirement in a full-scale ‘hot war’ an estimated 1 million liters per day at$1 per liter will come to $10 million daily. Additional supply chains, medical evacuations and other base operations will add roughly $50 million.

Cyber operations and satellite-based warfare are estimated to cost around $10 million per day, covering expenses for specialized personnel, software infrastructure, and hardware systems. In addition, damage to forward bases, loss of high-value assets such as aircraft (Rafale at $100 million each), and troop casualties could drive daily replacement and medical care costs to between $30 million and $80 million.

Total estimate: $650 million per day (based on India’s defence budget, India’s peacetime daily expenditure is $205 million).Pakistan’s personnel mobilisation cost, assuming 50 per cent of 650,000 active personnel are deployed, is estimated to be $15 million plus food and fuel of $10 million a day. Mobilizing 200,000 reserves adds $5 million per day.

Pakistan’s air operations -- assuming the deployment of 400 aircraft conducting 200 sorties per day -- are estimated to cost $20 million daily. Munitions will add $5 million. Ground operations and artillery cost, assuming 500 units at $20,000 each, means $10 million per day. For ammunition add $5 million a day. Naval operations-Type-054 frigates-cost around $10 million a day for fuel and missiles.

Pakistan’s fuel and supply chains are estimated to cost $5 million a day escalating to $10 million under combat stress. For medical evacuations and base operations add $15 million per day. Cyber and intelligence operations roughly $5 million a day. Tactical missile test around $10 million sporadically. Loss of high-value assets such as aircraft, JF-17 at $25 million each. For infrastructure damage add $20 million a day.

Total estimate: $250 million per day. To be sure, beyond the direct military costs, the economic fallout -- from trade disruptions and supply chain breakdowns to collapsing foreign investment, damaged infrastructure, soaring inflation and financial market crashes -- would only deepen the devastation for both nations.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.