Quarterly GDP growth figures to be released next week

ISLAMABAD: In a bid to meet an IMF condition, the government is all set to release quarterly GDP growth rate figures for the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current fiscal year next week amid declining trends in industrial sector.

The real GDP growth will now mainly rely on the services sector and to some extent on the neglected agriculture sector.

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled to meet here on March 26 in order to finalise the provisional GDP growth figures for the second quarter of the current fiscal year.

Under the IMF condition, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has been releasing GDP growth figures on a quarterly basis. Ironically, the PBS has been undertaking this exercise without having permanent Member National Accounts in its fold. Out of five members, the PBS is running only with one member. A summary for the appointment of Member National Accounts has been forwarded, but the position has not been filled as yet.

The government had envisaged GDP growth rate target of 3.6 percent for the current fiscal year which seems impossible to achieve. In the first quarter (July-September), the provisional GDP growth rate stood at 0.9 percent for the current fiscal year.

Keeping in view the performance of industrial sector, the major reliance would remain on the services sector with increasing expectation of the economic managers that it might hover over 1.5 percent for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. In agriculture sector, major crops, including cotton, rice and sugarcane, failed to achieve the desired mark. For instance, cotton production remained below 3 million bales compared to the last fiscal year. The sugarcane production remained the same to the last fiscal year.

Now the provisional growth of agriculture sector will depend upon the output of wheat as the government envisaged its production target of over 30 million tons.

On minor crops, maize production remained lower than the target. The agri growth will depend on the performance of livestock as it is calculated on the basis of livestock survey done in 2005-6.

The IMF has secured guarantees for the provision of data on a regular basis. The data provided to the IMF is broadly adequate for surveillance in most areas, but there are weaknesses in the National Accounts (NA) and Government Finance Statistics (GFS) that somewhat hamper surveillance.

The FY16 NA rebasing and recent publication of quarterly GDP have provided a better basis for assessing economic developments, but important shortcomings remain in the source data available for sectors accounting for around a third of GDP, while there are issues with the granularity and reliability of the GFS.

The authorities are prioritising addressing these weaknesses, supported by Fund Technical Assistance (TA) on the GFS and a new PPI index. The PBS will undertake fieldwork for four major surveys ahead of the upcoming NA rebasing to FY26.