At risk

The World Risk Index 2024, part of the World Risk Report 2024, assesses the disaster risk for 193 countries and ranks them accordingly. When measuring the risk profile of countries, the index aims to be as comprehensive as possible. It accounts for climate change and natural disasters and epidemic risks alongside more traditional factors like war, conflicts and uprisings. The main focus of the report is multiple crises and disaster risk management. Rather unsurprisingly, Pakistan ranks at 10 on the index given the fact that it has been battered by disasters in almost every realm that the rankings account for in recent years. From the Covid-19 pandemic and resurgent polio to the 2022 floods, ever-present political instability and the growing terror threat, the country has seen it all and seems to constantly be on the brink of disaster. That being said, it has managed to avoid the total collapse seen in other countries and tends to come out of each crisis battered but still standing. What is rather surprising about the list is the countries ranked ahead of Pakistan, which include Bangladesh at nine, India at three and the Philippines at the top spot.

Pakistan is still among the 10 most disaster-prone countries in the world, and its risk profile has only grown from the previous year. More than eight million people required humanitarian assistance in Pakistan in 2023, despite the fact that the country was a year removed from the catastrophic floods of 2022. What is often missed when looking at the multiple crises facing the country is the fact that they are quite interconnected. As the report points out, risks in one area tend to exacerbate risks in another and seemingly unconnected events like extreme weather, conflict and pandemics actually amplify each other. The regions in Pakistan that are most prone to conflict also tend to be the ones that bear the brunt of our exclusionary economy and its calamities and are also more likely to suffer from environmental problems such as water shortages.

What Pakistan faces is not a series of separate crises but a hydra of problems joined together at the hip. As such, any piecemeal approach to our disaster vulnerability is unlikely to work. The state must raise its basic capacity to both deal with crises and adapt to them. These are both elements that the World Risk Index takes into account when ranking countries. Few countries score higher than Pakistan on ‘Lack of Coping Capacities’ and the country does even worse when it comes to ‘Lack of Adaptive Capacities’, scoring 63.10 and 64.18 on these categories respectively. And this really seems to be the crux of the problem. There is no region or country that is free from the risk of disaster. Europe, what many would consider the model of a developed and safe region, is currently host to one of the world’s two most intense wars and is struggling to cope with record breaking heat and its consequences. The difference is in the ability to weather bad times and ensure that they do as little damage as possible while also learning lessons and doing better next time.