Can Harris win? Historian’s prediction model thinks so

ALLAN Lichtman, an American historian who has accurately predicted nearly every US presidential election since 1984, has forecast that US Vice President Kamala Harris will secure the presidency in 2024.

Lichtman, a professor at American University, uses a unique election model he developed in 1981 with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. His system -- ‘13 Keys to the White House’ -- evaluates the performance of the incumbent party rather than relying on polls or pundits.

Lichtman’s model assesses 13 true-or-false statements related to the strength of the sitting White House party. These keys include factors such as incumbency, the state of the economy, and social unrest. According to his formula, the incumbent party must lose six or more keys to lose the election. For the 2024 election, Lichtman believes Harris, who became the Democratic frontrunner after President Biden’s decision not to run, will secure at least eight of the 13 keys, enough to hold onto the White House.

Lichtman’s analysis -- published in a video interview by the New York Times on Thursday -- reveals that only three keys are working against Harris so far.