Biden bows out, oil prices bow lower

LONDON: Oil prices fell on Monday after Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term as US president, while investors considered the possibility of US interest rate cuts, potentially as soon as September.

Brent crude futures fell 68 cents, or 0.82 per cent, to $81.95 a barrel by 1327 GMT US. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 69 cents at $79.44.Brent has remained relatively steady in the past month, hovering between $82 and $88 a barrel.

The US Federal Reserve is due to review policy next on July 30-31, when investors expect it to maintain rates, though there have been signs of a possible cut in September.“The risk of delaying rate cuts is tied to a contracting economy, which could potentially lead to a recession. This scenario signals bearish implications for oil demand and prices,” Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com, said in a note.

Higher interest rates boost borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, weighing on oil demand.“If we get an indication of a soon rate cut, the Fed could be positive for risk sensitive assets like oil,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Meanwhile, news that President Biden decided on Sunday to abandon his re-election bid was not a major factor for oil markets, analysts said. He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate who should face Republican Donald Trump in the November election.

“We think the ability of the US president to influence US oil production is probably overrated,” said Suvro Sarkar, energy team lead at DBS Bank, noting US output reached record highs last year despite the Biden administration’s moves to address climate change.