Futures rise on higher odds of Trump victory after shooting

US stock index futures rose on Monday on higher odds of presidential candidate Donald Trump winning a second term after surviving an assassination attempt, while interest rate cut hopes continued to lift sentiment.

Trump was shot in the ear on Saturday during a rally in Pennsylvania in what authorities were treating as an assassination attempt. His face spattered with blood, Trump pumped his fist moments after the attack and his campaign said he was fine after the incident.

Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 67 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 37 cents.The dollar rose against major currencies and Treasury yields ticked higher on Monday. Under Trump, markets expect hawkish trade policy and looser regulation over issues from climate change to cryptocurrency.

“Trump as President is likely a positive for risk ... we should see S&P500 futures and the USD push higher today,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.“It’s the promise of de-regulating US industries which should be the big equity kicker.”

Shares of companies linked to the former US president soared in premarket trading. Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the most actively traded stocks and jumped 63.5 per cent, while software firm Phunware gained 49.4 per cent and video-sharing platform Rumble rose 16.7 per cent.

Crypto stocks also leapt as bitcoin rose 8.0 per cent to a two-week high, with exchange Coinbase Global up 5.7 per cent and miners Marathon Digital holdings and Riot Platforms rising more than 6.0 per cent each.

Shares of other companies expected to benefit from a second term for Trump also increased. Gunmaker Smith & Wesson rose 2.5 per cent and prison operator GEO Group was up 7.0 per cent.

The gains followed a strong rally on Friday, with Wall Street’s main indexes ending the week higher and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI and the S&P 500 touching intraday record highs, as investors upped bets on a September interest rate cut by the Fed after cooler-than-expected inflation data.

Traders now see a more than 91 per cent chance of a 25-basis point rate cut by September, and have priced in two cuts for this year. The Fed’s last set of economic projections showed policymakers expect to cut rates just once.

As the quarterly corporate earnings season ramps up this week, it remains to be seen if megacaps can justify their high valuations. Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are scheduled to release results before market open.

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, are expected later on Monday and will be parsed for clues on their assessment of the latest data.