Democracy’s calendar

The only concrete information we have about the upcoming general elections is that they will not take place within the constitutionally stipulated 90 days. The rest is – still – up in the air. When the president of Pakistan, who could have actually given a date for the elections as per his constitutional duty, also just ‘suggests’ that elections should be held on or before November 6, you know that nobody wants to be the one ruffling the feathers of the country’s powerful stakeholders. In a recent interview, President Dr Arif Alvi said he does not believe that general elections will take place in January 2024 but added that now that the superior judiciary has taken notice of the matter, he is hopeful that the judiciary will issue an apt order. The Supreme Court (SC) has fixed the hearing of a case pertaining to the holding of general elections within 90 days after dissolution of the assemblies next week on November 2. Instead of doing his constitutional duty, the president is pinning all his hopes on the apex court when he could have easily just given a date for elections; some have called this an easy copout.

Responding to President Alvi’s inhibitions and doubts about elections in January, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has said that there is no chance of a delay in the elections and it will be issuing the election schedule after the delimitation of constituencies is completed. Not everyone is buying the ECP’s claims though; observers say that the ECP keeps saying elections will be held but it has still not given a date for the elections. All the doubts that are currently lingering in people’s minds will dissipate as soon as a date is announced by the ECP. Some believe that once the SC takes up the elections issue next week, the ECP may finally announce a date. Now that PML-N supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif is back in Pakistan, nothing much is left to be done and the general idea is that the next general election will take place by January or February next year. February may be the likely possibility, given that Maulana Fazlur Rehman has come up with a weather-related ‘problem’ and asked that elections not take place at the end of January because of harsh weather in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. By most analysis, the national and provincial assemblies have to be in place for Senate elections to take place in March 2024. Nawaz, they say, is back to form the next government. It is quite evident from the way the PTI and PPP have reacted to Nawaz’s return that they believe some sort of ‘deal’ has been struck and the former prime minister is not back for nothing.

Whatever the truth may be about a deal or settlement, the real issue is about holding transparent and credible elections. Elections are held for the resolution of political conflict between parties. But can they be held with the big huge elephant in the room: the PTI and its ‘absence’. Imran Khan is behind bars like Nawaz was before the 2018 elections. By the looks of it, the PTI may be kept away from the elections and even if it does take part, it won’t be smooth sailing. Nawaz and the PML-N look confident enough. At the end of the day, the people’s vote should decide who gets to form the next government instead of deals behind closed doors.