Rupee rally continues, analysts see more gains ahead

KARACHI: The rupee kept gaining against the dollar on Wednesday, staying positive for the 20th consecutive session, with analysts expecting the rally to continue in the days ahead.

In the interbank market, the rupee closed at 284.68 to the dollar, 0.37 percent stronger than Tuesday’s close of 285.72. In the open market, the local currency increased by 1 rupee. The Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan reported that the rupee was trading at 285 per dollar for selling as opposed to 286 in the previous session.

According to analysts, the rupee kept increasing as a result of a decline in the black market’s demand for dollars. “In my view, PKR appreciated against the dollar as illegal demand vanished after the crackdown,” said Samiullah Tariq, the head of research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company.

In the days to come, Tariq thinks that the rupee would strengthen to 280 to the dollar. Mustafa Mustansir, the head of research at Taurus Securities said the main reason for the rise in the value of the rupee is the crackdown on the grey markets and illegal hoarding of dollars.

“Plus, we believe that the illegal flow of dollars to Afghanistan has also stopped,” Mustansir said. “Further, the restructuring of the exchange companies sector by the SBP has also had a significant impact. Overall, these measures have led to heavy selling of dollars in the open market. I think the rally will continue,” he added.

The rupee’s near-term outlook is expected to be positive, but its medium-term future course will be determined by the state of the country’s economic fundamentals, especially the conclusion of the International Monetary Fund’s review of the stand-by arrangement (SBA) and the position of the foreign exchange reserves. In late October or early November 2023, there will likely be an IMF review.