Growers reap surprisingly high wheat output despite weather vagaries

LAHORE: Despite weather-related adversaries, wheat growers have been reaping a surprisingly high output in South Punjab, a major food basket, stoking prospects of plenteous produce on the provincial level if a similar trend continues in the central parts of the province as well, a survey conducted by The News and official data reveal.

Reports pouring in from South Punjab suggest well above-average wheat output, right from Rajanpur in the southwestern stretch to Bahawalnagar in the south-eastern belt. Many farmers are reporting yields of more than 50 maunds per acre, compared to the national average of 32 maunds. Such a turnaround in wheat projections shows how wheat plants miraculously withstood wet-weather-related damages to the crop, thanks to consistently cool temperatures and bright sunny days.

At a later stage, although an unusual series of rainfall, thunder, and hailstorms, and gusty winds in March, which is being seen by many as a climate catastrophe, did pose some challenges to the viability of the crop.

However, it emerged that otherwise the weather largely proved beneficial to net gains in production due to bringing gentle and cooler winds from the high reaches of the western and northern mountain ranges in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir to the long wheat belt running alongside in the plains from Attock to central Sindh, despite damage to standing crops in patches primarily due to lodging. Though it proved destructive in isolated places, it brought cool temperatures at the crucial growth stage of the wheat plant, reinvigorating the photosynthesis process for longer periods.

In early March this year, mercury started jumping in the south and central parts of the province to above the 30 C mark, ringing alarm bells for the forced maturity of the ultra-heat sensitive wheat plants. However, much to the relief of growers, the return of pleasant to cool weather in the remaining part of March shielded plants, especially early-sown wheat, from harsh levels of heat at the crucial phase of grain formation. Breaking the cycle of unusual heat, cooler nights continued to protect the crop from heat stress that could have resulted in the terminal maturity of the crop, rendering the grain size too small to yield a good crop. For instance, in Rahim Yar Khan, located in the southern tip of the Punjab province, the minimal temperature in late December to February and in patches even below 20 °C nighttime weather in March did wonders for the vitality and plant structure, with strong growth at the early to mid-level of plant life coupled with prolonging the crucial grain milking stage.

The introduction of good disease-resistant and high-yielding seeds in the last few years, mainly to repel deadly fungus attacks on wheat crops, which was a new phenomenon, proved one of the deciding factors in achieving high crop yield. In many areas, even average soils are producing above 40 tonnes per acre of yield, say farmers. Healthy early harvesting has also been giving clues to greater-than-expected wheat production this year.

At least one-fourth of the wheat crop has already been harvested in Rajanpur, with many farmers getting over 50 tonnes per acre of output, according to a local farm leader. Reaping is slow as many farmers resorted to hand cutting of lodged plants, which requires huge labour input. The Crop Reporting Service of the provincial Agriculture Department has lately woken up to the reality of having very good crop prospects.

According to an assessment of the provincial agriculture department dated April 9, 2023, a 16.4 percent jump has been witnessed in wheat crop-cutting results. If this trend continues, Punjab may produce 20.66 million metric tonnes of wheat, which would be about a million metric tonnes more than its target.

It may further show a higher harvest of over 1.7 million metric tonnes, said an official. When contacted, a senior official reaffirmed that, despite rains and hailstorms in the country during the current season, there are signs of improvement in the wheat crop. Keeping in view the trend, per-acre yield may jump by one and a half maund in Punjab.

In Sindh, there is a possibility of harvesting more than four million metric tonnes of production. Overall, on a national level, the likelihood of producing close to 28 million metric tonnes of wheat has not been out of sight, said an official.