Next two months to be hotter as heatwaves likely

The upcoming months of May and June would remain dry and extremely warm in Karachi with an increase of one to two degrees Celsius in the average temperature and chances of heatwaves, said Dr Ghulam Rasool, the director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department on Friday.

Speaking at the 6th Monsoon Forum and 2018 Summer Season Preparedness Workshop, Rasool said that the PMD has established a Heat Wave Early Warning System for the city, which would be forecasting any increase in temperature at least three days earlier.

The forum and workshop was organised by the PMD in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia and K-Electric.

According to Rasool, weather all across the country is expected to remain hot and dry in the next two months, but Karachi in particular would experience a couple of degrees above the normal temperature. He urged the concerned departments to create awareness among the people on how to remain safe during the hot and dry weather, especially during heatwaves.

Rasool said that 2016 was the hottest year recorded in the last 150 years, followed by 2015 and 2017, and added that overall temperature across the globe was on the rise due to climate change. “The last week of March this year was the warmest week when the record of 30 cities of highest temperature broke, while upper parts of the country experienced unusual rains and drop in the temperature, which is due to climate change,” he added.

Speaking of the rains in the coming monsoon months, he said overall indicators reveal that like the rest of South Asia, Pakistan would also experience “normal rains”, which means that its water needs would be fulfilled. However, he added, a final forecast would be given in the first week of June.

“Normal rains mean that upper parts of the country would experience more rains as compared to Sindh and Balochistan, where rains would be less than normal,” he said, adding that a final forecast would be made after evaluating the temperature in May.

“But we would have to work on improving our existing water reservoirs and establish more reservoirs as thousands of acres-feet of water is being wasted going into the sea,” he added.

Rasool maintained that like in India and Bangladesh, May and June are months of tropical cyclone formation and predicted that a tropical cyclone may also develop in the Arabian Sea due to a rise in sea temperature.

Lt. General (retd) Omer Mahmood Hayat, the chairman of NDMA, in his address called for enhanced coordination between different stakeholders, including the disaster management authority, Met department, utility service providers and other institutions to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Lauding the PMD for its efforts in providing early warnings of heatwaves, rains and floods as well as other climatic events, he assured that the NDMA would extend all possible coordination in case of natural disasters and calamities in the country.

In his presentation, Karachi Chief Meteorologist Dr Muhammad Hanif said that Pakistan’s water shortages would be over after the coming monsoon rains as the climate indicators reveal that Pakistan would experience normal rains in the coming season as compared to rains in 2017 which were 23 per cent less than normal.

“Sindh and Karachi, however, are expected to receive below average rainfall in the coming season but a more accurate forecast can only be made in the first week of June after assessing the weather patterns and indicators in May,” he maintained.

Brigadier Mukhtar Ahmed from NDMA said the authority has started the consultation process well ahead of the monsoon season and it is in its final stages. He added all stakeholders would be invited to Islamabad to prepare a disaster management strategy for the coming season.

Ahmed said Pakistan suffered losses of billions of dollars as well as of precious lives in natural disasters that have hit the country, including the super floods in 2010 and 2011. He added that lessons should be learnt from the past and strategies should be formulated to minimise the losses in case of floods and other climatic events.

Terming the sewerage system in Katchi Abadies and many areas of Karachi as faulty, he said there were chances of urban flooding in the mega city like last year but added that by working jointly and improving the drainage system, losses could be minimised to a large extent.