The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has been passing through one of the most difficult phases since its birth as a student party in 1978. Its relationship with the establishment is at the lowest level while it faced frustration due to political isolation despite its strong vote bank in urban Sindh. What are the relevant quarters thinking about the MQM, and can the party change itself accordingly?
The MQM has launched a low key movement two weeks back for two main demands. First, to lift the ban on free speech of its chief Altaf Hussain, and restore powers of the local governments, including that of mayor, which the Sindh government is in no mood to restore as enjoyed by the mayor under the 2001 Sindh Local Government Act.
In order to press the government to accept its demand, the MQM Rabita Committee, Pakistan and London, have chalked out a protest plan. The party has started its four-day token hunger strike from Friday. What is the next move after Feb 23, and how far it will go in its campaign?
The MQM’s recent press release, asking people to prepare themselves for any eventualities in the next 15 days due to uncertain political developments, did not cause as much panic in the city as it used to cause in the past, but it did initiate a new debate in the political and media circles.
So will the party resort to the option of a strike in the city or continue its protest in a low key? In the recent past also, the MQM had withdrawn its strike call.
The Rangers’ immediate and strong response once again put the party in a difficult position and some of its leaders conceded that the press release giving 15-day warning was uncalled for. Perhaps, some of the party leaders also believe that it should have been avoided.
Now, what the establishment wants from the MQM and how much relief the party will get if it abandons its protest.
Revival of Altaf Hussain’s freedom of speech looks a remote possibility, even if the superior courts lift the ban, but he may be allowed limited space. The government can initiate talks with the MQM on the Sindh Local Government Ordinance, 2013, but it ruled out revival of the 2001 Act.
The MQM’s relationship with the establishment has been strained since January 2015 over some of the addresses of Altaf Hussain, but now thinking within the relevant quarters give quite a scary picture about the popular party of urban Sindh. There is practically a policy of zero tolerance for the MQM chief. In many ways, its leadership was advised to start looking party politics beyond the MQM chief.
However, the party so far has resisted this move, regarded as “minus-Altaf” formula, but the formation of a nine-member Supreme Council is a way forward for the future MQM structure. It’s the most powerful body after Altaf Hussain, who instead of nominating his successor went for collective leadership.
Establishment circles acknowledged the MQM’s capability of moulding the public opinion, particularly among its constituency i.e. Muhajirs. It also believes that the MQM’s reach to the people is most effective and due to some poor policies of the PPP-led Sindh government, the rural-urban divide has sharpened.
What it is worried about is the MQM’s alleged militancy, which it believes has been curtailed to a large extent but still exists. It is feared that even some of its political faces are under strong scrutiny and on the watched list.
Therefore, there is a strong feeling within the establishment that the MQM has not completely disbanded its alleged militant wing, which is active as a shadow organisation. Thus, it wants the MQM to reform itself as a normal political party and disband all such activities. The MQM has denied all these allegations and termed it as its media trial.
The Rangers, which at present is the lead agency handling the MQM, still suspects that in the light of interrogation of some of suspects arrested recently, it appears as the MQM’s militant wing is still working in one way or the other. The MQM leadership, which is in contact with the top officials of the Rangers, has been advised to review its policy. There are also some “red lines,” for some front-line party leaders, against whom serious inquiries are pending.
Within the intelligence circles, there are not satisfactory reports about the party’s alleged links with Indian RAW, the charge which the MQM has rejected, but perhaps unable to convince the intelligence hierarchy.
Secondly, the establishment is also concerned about the MQM’s activities at its headquarters, 90 and Khursheed Memorial Hall, particularly about its 24-hour activities. Thus for all practical purposes, it wants the party to close its activities in the office after midnight or even earlier.
This is an interesting assessment of the establishment as revealed by a well-connected source. They apparently are not very comfortable with its overseas contacts in late hours. Agencies not only suspect activities at MQM headquarters, 90, Khursheed Memorial Hall, but in most of the houses in the closed locality.
Sources further said in the last contact between the top officials of the Rangers and MQM, the party was once advised to curtail activities at 90.
So in short, the establishment wants the MQM accept the minus-Altaf formula, completely disband its militant wing and also sideline some of its leaders allegedly having links with the said wing, close its headquarters 90 and Khursheed Memorial Hall before midnight and cooperate with them in the clean-up of the party from such elements.
Thus, under the present circumstances, the party is unlikely to get the kind of powers its mayor used to enjoy under former mayor Mustafa Kamal. There are also remote chances of the party getting back control over local government institutions like the Karachi Development Authority, Sindh Building Control Authority, and Karachi Water and Sewerage Board.
Therefore, for all practical purposes, the Karachi Municipal Corporation (KMC) will be a powerless body and major control will be of the Sindh government.
Now, here the problem lies as unlike in Punjab, curtailment of powers of the local government is seen as rural-urban divide. Had the Sindh government taken these actions prior to the local government elections, things would not have been as tense as now.
However, the dilemma with the MQM today is the lack of political support for them except the Functional Muslim League (FML). Even Jamaat-e-Islami, which in the past backed full powers to the local government, has now taken a more cautious view.
The MQM, at present is facing a situation where despite being a strong urban-based political force, it has failed to either bring the mainstream political forces like PML(N), PPP and PTI to its side or settle its issue with the establishment.
The party pins its hope on the relationship between the PML-N government and military establishment. Like many other political pundits, the MQM also feels that the sudden proactive role by the NAB could be the beginning of the end of the PML-N government prior to its tenure in 2018.
The MQM can see space for itself, if such a situation arises. Establishment often used the MQM against both the PPP and PML-N governments in the 90s. There is every possibility of the return of the politics of the 90s, even with not so much intensity.
But it is very unlikely that the MQM will get the kind of response which it once used to get nor the kind of support from the establishment as it got particularly under retired General Pervez Musharraf.
Crushing the MQM or pushing it to the wall may not be the policy of the establishment, but if the party developed a perception among its vote bank that it has been pushed to the wall, its mandate not been accepted, powers of the local government curtailed to keep it out of mainstream politics, it would politically benefit it.
Therefore, any extreme action is neither an option for the MQM nor it suits its politics in a larger context, if it really wants to keep its liberal and secular color. On the other hand, the Sindh government also needs to realise that curtailing powers of the local government and practically making mayor and LG powerless are violations of its own policy and programme.
At present, the MQM is on the receiving end, both in its relationship with the establishment as well as with the government, both in the Centre and in Sindh. The only advantage on its side is the vote bank, which is still intact, though has gone down to some extent. Secondly, due to poor governance in Sindh and powerless LG, the MQM sympathy vote can increase.
Politics is the game of uncertainties and who knows tomorrow MQM’s importance may once again be recognised and it becomes an ally of the PML-N or PPP. The establishment may need them as the game changer.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst at GEO, The News and Jang.
