Zero-sum squared

Former foreign minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri’s tome titled Neither a Hawk nor a Dove is finally out. The current toxicity in Pakistan-India relations renders it only more relevant. As it is hazardous to dwell on what Kasuri has to say without actually reading his diplomatic memoir, my comments are based on what Kasuri has shared in his interaction with the media.
Kasuri’s principal merit is that he succeeded better than other politicians in building a relationship of trust with the military. In Kasuri, Musharraf had a civilian face for his foreign policy – particularly with regard to relations with India. He became a major player in Musharraf’s game plan to work out with India a roadmap for durable peace in South Asia.
Kasuri Sahib is well aware of the forces working on both sides to scuttle peace efforts. In his view, the attacks on Samjhota Express and Mumbai were both aimed at wrecking the dialogue process between Pakistan and India. The first took place on the eve of his visit to Delhi. He was advised, it is not clear by whom, to cancel the visit but he refused to do so since that would have encouraged the terrorists into believing that they had succeeded in sabotaging the visit.
In the case of Mumbai, the attack was more effective in jeopardising the peace process as it was timed with the PPP foreign minister’s visit to Delhi in November 2008 to re-launch the dialogue process. But here is the difference. Pakistan was the aggrieved party from the carnage on Samjhota and tried to save the dialogue. In Mumbai, India was the victim and it decided not only to block the dialogue but threatened also to launch an aerial strike against Pakistan, probably a scenario the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks had anticipated as a step toward an armed conflict.
Kasuri told the visiting bipartisan US delegation in the aftermath of Mumbai that an Indian strike on Muridke would invoke a measured but definite response from Pakistan. The situation could get out of control in view of the public outrage. The worst scenario was averted but many in Pakistan feel that Mumbai is ingrained in the Indian psyche and the feeling of vengeance is still strong. The powers that used their influence to calm the situation were cautioned by India that another Mumbai would certainly lead to punitive action.
Another attack like Mumbai has not happened. Meanwhile, India has used it as a peg to block normalisation of relations with Pakistan. Only the roles of the BJP and Congress have been reversed. Since Modi’s election last year, it is Congress that keeps daring the BJP to accommodate Pakistan. In the short term, relations between the two countries have taken a nosedive. Within the BJP, the faction represented by Sushma Swaraj is keeping Modi on a tight leash.
Kasuri’s loud exhortation to Modi to make a place in history by bringing durable peace between India and Pakistan may have some appeal for the Indian leader. However, considering his own views on Hindutva and treating Pakistan as a dushman, seasoned with anti-Pakistan hysteria in the Indian media and the resultant hostile public opinion, not enough space is left for Modi to make overtures to Pakistan even if he so desired to do so.
The meeting between the two premiers at Ufa happened thanks to intercession by mutual friends but the Indian heart was not into it. Hence the total emphasis on reviving the dialogue by a meeting between the two national security advisers to take up the issue of terrorism. Pakistan should have rejected the idea straight away because, whereas Pakistan’s NSA deals with policy matters, his Indian counterpart is more like a chief of operations.
It was but natural for this Indian ploy to come crumbling down as soon as the joint communiqué was received in Pakistan. No government in Pakistan can survive after sidelining Kashmir in its dialogue with India. Islamabad did what it could to reassure the public through the media that Kashmir had not been forgotten. Next came the invitation to Hurriyet leaders to meet Sartaj Aziz before he met the Indian interlocutors. As if that was not enough, in walks Sushma Swaraj, turning a press conference into the operations room of her warrior diplomacy.
The common friends of Pakistan and India are not amused. The Ufa meeting has unfortunately led to moving two steps back in the process of normalisation. Where do we go from here? Back in the 1970s when a thaw in Sino-US relations began, there was recourse to sports and cultural exchanges, giving international relations the brand new term of ping pong diplomacy. India obviously does not borrow Chinese wisdom and remains intent on choking rather than promoting sports exchanges.
Khurshid Kasuri is not your typical politician in so far as he is an honest man and a straight talker wearing formal clothes. He was among the prime ministerial choices following the 2002 elections. But the power brokers joining Musharraf preferred to have one of their own, Zafarullah Jamali. Two years later, when the latter was asked to resign, the Chaudhrys ensured that the new PM would be someone without grassroots support. So Shaukat Aziz was chosen over other contenders.
Kasuri remained where many unsuccessful prime ministerial aspirants go: the Foreign Office. He was able to build a domestic and international network including the Pak Army. He devoted energy to reach a durable peace deal with India, particularly on the Kashmir issue. In his assessment, the two sides were close to reaching a formula for the resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute through the backchannel when the internal situation in Pakistan took a new turning with a full-blown crisis with the judiciary.
Pakistan-India relations have deteriorated since then. India’s selective approach – dumping Samjhota and keeping the Mumbai dossier alive – is not helping us move forward. Delhi’s double standards have taken out hope of reviving the dialogue. It is disheartening to listen to Pakistan’s chief diplomat Sartaj Aziz – what else to call him since the PM remains the foreign minister – talking about the uncertain prospects of another meeting between the two prime ministers. In a nutshell, Aziz sums up that India desires peace with Pakistan on its own terms. That is a non-starter.
The writer is a former ambassador.
Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com