The Raheel doctrine

Capital suggestion
The Raheel Doctrine is behind a paradigm shift: Pakistan, the US and China are now partnering over Afghanistan. The other paradigm shift is: India, Russia and Iran are being tossed out of Afghanistan. The GHQ-led paradigm shift has three objectives: One, curtailing Indian influence in Afghanistan. Two, political mainstreaming of the Afghan Taliban. Three, stabilisation of Afghanistan (in order to mitigate any potential Afghan turmoil spill-over into Pakistan).
The Raheel Doctrine has managed to haul China and the US onto the Pakistani bandwagon. Afghanistan has begun transferring captured Uyghur militants to China and China is backing Pakistan-led Afghan Taliban peace talks in Afghanistan. In another quid pro quo, Afghan intelligence has pledged to deny East Turkestan Islamic Movement any safe haven on Afghan territory and China’s state-owned, risk-tolerant, Metallurgical Corporation of China has pledged $3.5 billion to develop Aynak Copper mines.
Under the Raheel Doctrine, the US allows increased Chinese influence in and around China’s ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ in return for China’s acceptance of an extended US troop presence in Afghanistan (seven airbases and five land bases; 2024 and beyond). The US wants a stable Afghanistan and a stable Afghanistan is also in China’s interests as China plans increased economic activity in and around its restive Xinjiang.
In 2011, Afghan President Karzai signed a strategic partnership agreement with India (the agreement included Indian military training for Afghan army). In 2013, Karzai, during a visit to India, sought Cheetah light helicopters, A2.A18 105-milimetre howitzers, tanks and other military equipment from India.
Under the Raheel Doctrine, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has “withdrawn his predecessor's request for Indian military aid.” In February 2015, six Afghan cadets arrived in Pakistan to begin training at the prestigious Pakistan Military Academy at Kakul (PMA).
Under the Raheel Doctrine, Pak-China alliance is to become “the key to Afghan stability.” China has committed to build a hydroelectric dam on the Kunar River (the dam will provide electricity to both, Pakistan and Afghanistan). China has also committed to build rail and road connections connecting Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Under the Raheel Doctrine, “face-to-face negotiations between the United States, Afghan officials, and Taliban leaders would take place” (in Doha in March). Beijing has already hosted an Afghan Taliban delegation and the talks “if successful would represent the realisation of a 13-year effort to negotiate for peace with the Taliban.”
In 2012 and then again in 2013, the US has been unsuccessful in brokering reconciliation talks. Beijing has now “submitted a proposal to the Afghan government that suggests it could broker reconciliation talks (Chinese proposal includes Pakistan’s participation).”
To be certain, Afghanistan remains a high-risk politico-military quagmire. For America, it has been its longest war ever. As far as Afghanistan is concerned, Russia, Iran and India have now become wildcards (as to what they will do to regain some of their lost leverage).
Will the Raheel Doctrine move the world? Will the Pak-China alliance succeed where the US failed? Someone intelligent once said, “Say what men may, it is doctrine that moves the world. He who takes no position will not sway the human intellect.”
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com
Twitter: @saleemfarrukh