Who will be CM if re-election ordered?

LAHORE: A new political crisis is likely to emerge if the Lahore High Court declares the election of Punjab chief minister null and void and orders re-election.

In the case the LHC announces its verdict against the incumbent CM, the same candidates, Hamza Shehbaz and Pervez Elahi, will once again vie for the slot. For the vote of confidence, the new CM will require to attain the magical figure of 186, half of the strength of the House.

If the court restores the Punjab Assembly to the April 16 situation, the deputy speaker will supervise the proceedings of the CM’s election. However, if a no-confidence motion is tabled against him, the panel of chairmen will conduct the proceedings.

In the light of the Supreme Court's verdict, the Election Commission of Pakistan has de-seated 25 defectors of the PTI. By-elections on the 20 vacant seats will be held on July 17 and the election campaign is in full swing. The provincial Election Commission is yet to notify two minority and three women members on the reserved seats as per the priority list of the PTI. After the implementation of the Apex Court’s order for notification of the members on the reserved seats, the opposition alliance will bag five more seats. At the time of the election for the CM's slot, 351 members will participate in the voting, as the rest of 20 members will join the assembly after the by-elections.

At present, the government alliance enjoys the support of 177 MPAs, including 160 of the PMLN (160), four independents, one Rah-e-Haq Party and seven of the PPP. On the other hand, the PTI has 158 MPAs in the Punjab Assembly after 25 of its MPAs were de-seated. However, the party’s strength will reach 163 when the reserved members are notified. In addition, it also enjoys the support of 10 PMLQ MPAs. In total, the opposition alliance enjoys the support of 173 parliamentarians. In the situation, Chaudhry Nisar’s vote will be quite crucial, as there is a difference of only four votes between the ruling and opposition alliance.

In case, the slot goes to Hamza Shehbaz as he enjoys a razor-thin lead of four votes, the ruling alliance needs to win nine seats in the by-elections for successfully getting the vote of confidence. Hence, the results of the by-elections will decide the future of both alliances.

Former Lahore High Court Bar Association President Maqsood Buttar says if the LHC orders re-election, it will set a new precedent of interfering in the affairs of the parliament, challenging the authority of both executive and parliament. “The verdict will be marked as extra-constitutional,” he observed.

Lahore High Court Bar Association President Akbar Ali Dogar said it was premature to comment on a verdict which has not been announced. However, he said that when there is a deadlock in the parliament, the matter is referred to court, which announces its verdict as per its authority and the Constitution. “The examples are Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, Asif Ali Zardari and no-confidence motion matters,” he maintained.

Senior lawyer Hamid Khan said if any of the organs fails to perform its duty, it is the duty of the court to plug the gap and implement the law. “No matter if it sets a new precedent,” he observed.

Senior lawyer Latif Khosa said it was not a good example that courts would decide about the parliament. Senior legal expert Abid Saqi said it was not the duty of courts to interfere in the election of the chief minister. “It seems there is no law, whoever wants breaks the law at will,” he observed.

Lahore Bar Association President Rao Sami was of the view if the court ordered re-election, it would be the right decision. He added the LHC wanted to implement the SC order, which is in line with the law and Constitution. “It is crucial to stop floor crossing in the country,” he stressed.