Punjab gets a CM

Punjab finally has a chief minister – or two. On the directives of the Lahore High Court, Speaker National Assembly Raja Pervaiz Ashraf administered the oath to Hamza Shehbaz as CM Punjab yesterday. Hamza was elected chief minister of Punjab on April 16 but could not take oath for two weeks because Governor Punjab Omar Sarfaraz Cheema had other ideas, using every possible excuse to shirk from his constitutional responsibility of administering the oath to the new CM. At the end of it all, courts had to step in and ask the NA speaker to administer the oath. But as is the norm with PTI, we have not heard the last of this. The new twist in this sordid tale is that the governor of Punjab has decided that Usman Buzdar -- Imran Khan's favourite chief minister -- is still the chief minister of Punjab. On finding out that he's still the CM, Buzdar promptly held a cabinet meeting -- just adding to the now completely bizarre politics in the country.

A quick recap would be instructive: Usman Buzdar was asked to resign by former prime minister Imran Khan in March, after it was decided that PML-Q leader Chaudhry Pervaiz will be the PTI’s CM candidate against Hamza Shehbaz in the Punjab Assembly. Buzdar sent his resignation addressed to Khan. At that time, Chaudhry Sarwar was the governor of Punjab. Sarwar accepted Buzdar’s resignation, but was then sacked by the previous government and Omar Cheema was appointed in his place. The Punjab Assembly session for the election finally took place on April 16 but not before both the PTI and PML-Q tried everything under the sun to stop the elections, including violence/riots in the House. Then there was a delay in the oath to CM-elect and when the oath was finally going to be administered by Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, we saw Buzdar and his cabinet had been ‘restored’ by the governor without any constitutional provision. It would have all been comical had something like this not already been tried in the National Assembly last month by the previous government when we saw how the vote of no-confidence was ‘disallowed’ and the assembly was consequently dissolved by Khan. Some analysts think this may be tried again in Punjab. However, given that the LHC has already confirmed who is the rightful CM in this case, it may not be possible for Buzdar to do so. At the same time, the PML-N is considering a reference under Article 6 against President Arif Alvi, Governor Punjab Omar Cheema and some others.

Now that we have a CM in Punjab after over a month, it is time to take stock of what lies ahead. First of all, those PTI members who voted for Hamza may be de-seated soon as the ECP decides on Article 63-A against those dissident members. This will make Hamza lose the majority in the House. Will there be by-elections on those seats or will the PTI and PML-Q resign en masse from the Punjab Assembly to force Hamza to go for elections of the entire Punjab Assembly? These are some scenarios that are being discussed. Whatever the case may be, whenever and if the ECP de-seats the dissident members, there will be another constitutional crisis on our hands. The federal government is all set and may complete its term according to some reports but the fate of Punjab hangs in the balance due to the close numbers. The optics of a father-son duo running Pakistan and Punjab will also make the PTI’s narrative more popular. And, as in the rest of the country, the disruptive politics being played by the PTI is bound to create more nuisance in the coming days.