Imran Khan stands no chance to regain power

PTI is out of power and is campaigning for fresh elections which are not scheduled immediately as per the desire of PTI Chairman Imran Khan.

Imran Khan is hopeful that given his conspiracy theory of US intervention, he would be able to secure a two-thirds majority in the parliament if elections are held immediately. He also hopes to put enough pressure on the judiciary and the establishment to seek fresh elections through a petition in the SC. He also believes that his narrative has traction within the armed forces.

However, whenever the current coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif decides, elections will be held which may not happen even in 2022. Yet, the results of the next general elections in Pakistan will not be a repeat of 2018 elections. Here is why?

This time around, the equation between Imran Khan and the establishment had changed drastically. His success in the 2018 was more the byproduct of the deliberate failure of the RTS system than the outcome of his genuine electoral success. It is beyond any reasonable doubt that he was given 115 seats in the parliament and ensured that he had the support of allies to form the next government.

However, over the last three-and-a-half year, he was an absolute failure to deliver: the country's economic growth suffered gravelly; inflation went into double-digit; Pakistan was about to face Sri Lanka's default position; his incompetence and corruption were dully reflected in Farah Gujjar and a Buzdar governance model in Punjab, KP and at the Centre.

Imran Khan finally became an embarrassment for his sponsors and the people at large. His Khumani-like rhetoric served only as a distraction from the real governance failures than any instrument of change for the trapped masses. Eventually, the establishment started taking flak for supporting an incompetent government.

As a consequence, a very difficult decision had to be made to withdraw the institutional support for Imran Khan — the so-called Imran Project. The fact of the matter is no-confidence motion (NCM) moved by joint opposition was neither sponsored by the US nor the establishment, rather it sailed through when the institutions decided against propping up the government out of the way. They rejected all prodding by the then Prime Minister Imran Khan to keep his MNAs and the allies to his side.

So, it was just a matter of time before the government would fall regardless of what tactics of hanging to power Imran Khan adopted since he lost the number game. Coming back to its current strategy, the PTI believes it will rise to power again. The PTI enjoyed an unprecedented wave of popularity in the 2018 elections. It got around 115 general assembly seats, while the PMLN won 64 and the PPP 43 seats.

The number game will be important for the next elections, and looking at new realities, the PTI in all probability can win an extra seat in Karachi or KP with all its current clout.

The PTI is facing a major defeat in Punjab this time. Lack of institutional support, poor performance of PTI government, rising popularity of PMLN and Jahangir Tareen's influence in South Punjab are new factors drastically limiting the PTI's prospects for electoral success.

The PTI despite all odds going in its favour in Punjab general elections in 2018, secured 122 seats while the PMLN won 130. Given the speed of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who has achieved more in the first week of his government than what Imran Khan did in his last three months of government, PMLN will be a formidable force in Punjab.

The PMLN will likely get more than 100 general seats and with PPP, MQM and JUIF part of the electoral understanding on seat adjustments, it seems the same alliance will form the next government.

The popularity of PTI will continue in urban areas. As far as large PTI gatherings are concerned, they do not always mean votes. Anyway, without government machinery and the support of ATMs, the narrative and campaigning by Imran Khan likely to fizzle out in the next couple of months. Thus, the number game is all stacked heavily against the PTI.

(The writer is a geopolitical analyst, a politician from Balochistan and an ex-adviser to the provincial government on media and strategic communication. He tweets @Jan_Achakzai)