Four catalysts for change

The chain of events during the first two weeks of April has been rattling and to some extent unimaginable. Who would have thought at the turn of the year that Imran Khan would not be able to complete his term and the opposition would trump him like this?

In a way, giving all credit to the opposition for this transfer of power would not be fair. There have been at least four catalysts of change that will go down in history as harbingers of a new era of democracy in Pakistan. Some readers may not like the use of ‘new era’ for this simple change of government. Maybe the jubilation and ecstasy many of us felt at the ouster of a nearly fascist regime that Imran Khan led, is a bit premature. But for the sake of temporary relief, let’s count our blessings for the moment.

The catalysts for the recent change that I enumerate here are Asif Ali Zardari, the establishment, the judiciary, and of course Shehbaz Sharif. This is in alphabetical order to avoid an argument on who played a more significant role than the other. Former president Asif Ali Zardari has emerged as a statesman who has the courage and capacity to move things around in a positive direction. Though the media has not been fair to him and he has had more than his due share of accusations, backbiting, corruption charges, and a persistently derogatory description of his personality, he has withstood the tests of time.

Repeated arrests and long imprisonments may have diminished him physically but not at all mentally and politically. His recent interview on Geo was a delight to watch. His composure, and respect for other politicians was impressive. Most of all, there was no sign of any bitterness in him that would have affected anybody else, going through the traumas that he has experienced in his life. His democratic credentials are unmatchable as he is the only president in the history of Pakistan to have voluntarily transferred his powers to the office of the prime minister.

Zardari played an instrumental role in contacting other parties for a realignment of the power structure in Pakistan. Despite his failing health, he led the charge almost single-handedly against Imran Khan in the past few months. He is one of the sanest voices in Pakistani politics and truly believes in a more inclusive approach to governance. The way he brought together diverse groups against Imran Khan, perhaps no other political leader could have managed that. Imran Khan’s allies and his own disgruntled leaders of the PTI could not have dislodged Imran Khan the way Asif Zardari managed to do.

The role of the establishment as a catalyst for this change cannot be understated. Multiple attempts by the opposition in the past 45 months failed just because the right nod was not forthcoming. This sudden change of heart in the establishment is perhaps the result of a nose-diving economy and Imran Khan’s arrogance and inability to deliver. Since Imran Khan is impervious to all sane advice, his idiosyncrasies would have continued to drive Pakistan into an abyss.

Last week’s presser by the ISPR is a clear sign that a new era in Pakistan’s political culture may be round the corner. An era where all organs of state confine their roles to their constitutionally assigned duties. It may be a bit too much to expect at the moment, but sooner or later that is the path all democracies take – from Bangladesh to Chile. The failure of the last regime should serve as a wakeup call.

The catalytic role of the judiciary is visible to all. One reason democracy has not flourished in Pakistan is that the judiciary has time and again validated martial laws and military takeovers. The attitude of Pakistan’s superior judiciary has not always been in favour of democratic forces. Which is why observers were apprehensive about the suo motu Chief Justice Bandial took regarding the no-confidence motion. The verdict was clear and specific, upholding constitutional provisions. Without that verdict, the opposition could not have been successful in its attempts to remove Imran Khan and assume power. Even then, the PTI tried its best – or worst – to subvert the court’s order.

Then again, on voting day – April 9 – the judiciary came to the rescue by opening the courts at night. The government’s design was to keep delaying and prolonging the session by delivering long speeches, and giving intermittent breaks – throwing the entire country into a chaotic situation. The tension was mounting and there appeared to be no way out from Khan’s shenanigans. The Supreme Court of Pakistan and the Islamabad High Court sprang into action in a timely manner and sent a stern signal that any violation of the court verdict would result in stringent punishment.

Finally, Shehbaz Sharif also played a catalytic role by accepting the offer to become prime minister, an offer given by Asif Ali Zardari. Shehbaz Sharif had been an active administrator and an experienced politician. Perhaps he managed to persuade his elder brother and niece Maryam Nawaz to tone down their direct attacks on the country’s power-brokers. Some may argue that Shehbaz will just follow his brother’s line, but keeping in view the Zardari factor and other allies, Shehbaz is likely to move forward in a more circumspect manner.

The first few days of Shehbaz in power have demonstrated that he means business. He is capable of leading his team and adept at conceiving projects that benefit the masses. He is a workaholic, and that too at 70 years of age. Imran Khan may have been fitter in the physical sense but his lax attitude towards work and inability to think wisely are quite in contrast with what Shehbaz has to offer. Shehbaz is perhaps the best choice at least for now and one can hardly doubt his commitment to his country, despite all the PTI rhetoric about him.

The four catalysts discussed here may become agents of change if all perform their duties well. The presser by the ISPR has put paid to the conspiracy theory propounded by the PTI and its leaders. There are many who are highlighting that the system has not changed and this transfer of power is just cosmetic. In one of his interviews, Asif Zardari had beautifully explained that evolution is white and revolutions are red. Those waiting for a revolution, whereby the entire system is transformed overnight by taking over the means of production may strive for their ideal; but for now the recent change gives us a sign of hope.

The writer holds a PhD from the University of Birmingham, UK. He tweets @NaazirMahmood and can be reached at:

mnazir1964@yahoo.co.uk