High legal hurdles for Ukraine to adopt neutrality

Paris: Ukraine has offered to accept becoming neutral if it receives adequate security guarantees from Western nations, abandoning aspirations to join Nato. But those moves would require amending the constitution or a referendum, neither of which can be done in wartime, analysts warn.

President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged on March 15 that Ukraine was not able to join Nato. "We’ve heard for years that the door is open, but we also heard that we can’t join. That’s the truth we much recognise," Zelensky said in remarks seen as abandoning Ukraine’s Nato aspirations and considered by some Ukrainians as an unacceptable concession.

At peace talks in Turkey on Tuesday, Ukrainian negotiators said Kyiv was ready to accept neutrality if, under an international accord, Western states like the United States, France and Britain provided binding security guarantees.

However, Ukraine’s aspiration to join Nato is written in the country’s constitution, which cannot be amended during martial law, as is in effect now, or during a state of emergency. Furthermore, any change would require approval of the measure by 300 out of 450 lawmakers in two separate parliamentary sessions, and then be validated by the constitutional court.

"There aren’t the 300 votes today, but if the conflict continues and we see that Nato isn’t helping, opinions could change," said Ukrainian political scientist, Volodymyr Fesenko. "Zelensky’s disappointment with insufficient Nato aid is shifting public opinion. For us, Nato is the simplest and least painful concession," he added.

According to the latest survey conducted by the Rating polling firm earlier this month, 44 percent of Ukrainians feel that their country should join Nato, a drop of two percentage points from the poll done in February before the Russian invasion began. Some 42 percent believe Ukraine should continue to cooperate with Nato but not join.

"The Ukrainians want to join Nato, but if Europe offers EU membership and proposes a financial package to rebuild Ukraine, the Nato debate could be forgotten for a while," said Mykola Davydiuk, a Kyiv-based political analyst.

"If Britain, France and the United States -- three nuclear powers -- provide security guarantees, such an alliance would be stronger than integration into Nato," he added. Ukrainian negotiators in Turkey on Tuesday compared the security guarantees they want to the Nato treaty’s Article 5 where members agree to come to the defence of one another in case of military aggression.

Zelensky also stated that a peace deal "must be ratified by the parliaments of guarantor states," and that it must be put to a referendum in Ukraine. A vote by Ukrainians could pose a problem as "referendums, like elections, can’t be held during a war," said Olga Ayvazovska, head of the Ukrainian civic group Opora that focuses on elections and referendums,

While a vote can be quickly organised after fighting ends, such a move is not without risks, she noted. "It is probable that citizens won’t support the question posed in the referendum and the authorities will be forced to accept the results," Ayvazovska said. "Contrary to other countries, in Ukraine, referendums aren’t advisory in nature, but binding and must be implemented by the authorities," she added.