State of suspense

The ongoing developments on the political scene in Pakistan are presenting a rather clunky version of cloak-and-dagger manoeuvrings. The opposition appears to be gathering forces in an attempt to move a no-confidence motion against the government, or else put together enough people to defeat the PTI in the next polls. However, Prime Minister Imran Khan and his team seem as confident as ever with the prime minister somewhat sarcastically asking the opposition not to panic. But one wonders if the opposition really does need to panic, given recent meetings. For the first time, Shahbaz Sharif has met Jehangir Tareen, the dissident member of the PTI, and discussed matters with him in a meeting the details of which have not been released. However, just the fact that the meeting took place is significant. In further opposition consolidation efforts, just a couple of days after the Shahbaz-Tareen meeting, Asif Ali Zardari met Maulana Fazlur Rahman for the first time since the PPP quit the PDM last year.

Meanwhile, the opposition has also said that its members of parliament are being pressurised by calls from various quarters to refrain from voting in any one direction. It seems someone else may be in panic mode than the opposition, especially since in a numbers game it's really only a handful of defections that could topple the government. At the same time, the question is whether the opposition has the will to go about what it is proposing, at least indirectly – and whether it is correct that a number of PTI members would vote against their own party. These questions become all the more pertinent given the repeated failures of opposition in the Senate in the past, despite its strength in terms of numbers, and the way majority votes mysteriously seem to disappear on the day of voting. We are also as yet unclear on what kind of ‘deals’ have really been talked about behind the scenes; with Pakistan’s history of non-political interventions it would take a huge stretch of imagination to think that any final manoeuvres would take place without some form of reassurances by the deciding stakeholders in the country’s politics.

The PTI has definitely lost popularity, but it would be difficult to say that the opposition has gained much ground. And we have yet to see a solid agenda on how they would change the current scenario the country is stuck in – most of all, the crippling financial situation people are increasingly facing. This is the factor that would most affect the PTI in the next election. An interim government is, of course, always a possibility in Pakistan, given the history of our democracies. But the confidence of the PTI at the moment seems unshattered, despite the increasing number of statements coming through from the opposition, and a sense of panic within the PTI. The coming days promise much political suspense; analysts are already predicting a vote of no-confidence as early as the next few days. Whatever be the case, there is little doubt that the ruling party has painted itself into a rather tight corner and may only be looking at the usual saviours to be bailed out for some breathing space.