US policy

The rejection of Maduro’s legitimacy dates back to early 2015 when the Obama Administration declared Venezuela a threat to US national security. The statement set the stage for Trump’s severe sanctions, designed to intimidate global corporations into severing relations with Venezuela. Francisco Rodriguez, Venezuelan economist formerly with Bank of America and a leading opposition advisor, extrapolated that had it not been for the sanctions oil production in the high-yielding Orinoco River region would have been three to five times greater this year.

In the November elections, the conservative Popular Will party, founded by Lopez, will run candidates on the ticket of an alliance between the country’s major opposition parties. A host of smaller moderate parties are also running candidates who have criticized the sanctions, and unlike Popular Will and its allies, recognize Maduro’s legitimacy. The opposition’s fragmentation increases the possibility that Maduro’s United Socialist Party will achieve a plurality at the polls.

One recent poll placed the socialist party’s popularity at 34 percent, compared to 13 percent for Popular Will and the rest of the opposition combined. (Opposition pollster Luis Vicente Leon, in contrast, claims that the socialist party is at 20 to 25 percent). Despite the socialist party’s lead, a ‘Nicaragua phenomenon’ (where Nicara-guans voted the Sandinistas out of office in 1990 due to fear of continued US-promoted violence and economic sanctions) may benefit the opposition.

Practically nothing has changed since President Joe Biden took office in 2020, Maduro recently claimed. “There hasn’t been a single positive sign,” Maduro lamented, though he recognized that at least some State Department officials “agree with a political dialogue between Venezuelans.”

Nevertheless, Biden’s policy does depart from Trump’s strategy of inciting a military coup and threatening military intervention. However, despite this approach, the Panam Post noted that the Biden Administration has generally downplayed Venez-uela’s importance and “turned its eye toward Nicaragua,” where the prospects for regime change are brighter.

The real change in 2021 has been in the prodding of Maduro to accommodate US economic and political interests, as opposed to regime change. Days after the 2020 US elections, Abrams recommended to Biden that he no longer use sanctions as a regime-change strategy against Venezuela. Instead, the new approach offers to modify or lift sanctions in return for concessions from Maduro.

Maduro, in an interview with Bloomberg, indicated that he knew how to play the game. “Bondholders know it’s possible to invest in Venezuela,” he said, “as long as this whole persecution and these sanctions aren’t there.”

In response, Bloomberg reporter Erik Schatzker asked, “When negotiations start, if they do, will you look for an all-or-nothing agreement, or will you accept a gradual process? ”

Excepted: ‘US Policy Toward Venezuela Was Never About Promoting Democracy’

Commondreams.org