Nawaz Sharif's immunity

One of the increasing sentiments among many democrats in Pakistan over the last few weeks has been the sense that perhaps we need to lay off the parties and their leaders. Limited, corrupt, centralized and myopic as they may be, what other choices do Pakistanis have? The military has already taken over the big picture decisions in the country, with the active acquiescence of the sitting government. The presence of the head of the Pakistani military in Washington DC for the strategic dialogue was only a manifestation of this. In practice, most key decisions have been getting made out of Rawalpindi for several months. Instead of piling on criticism, and increasing the aura of illegitimacy around Pakistan's mainstream political parties, it seems reasonable to begin to cut the politicians some slack. Pakistan's democracy can ill-afford another era of military-led, opinion-neutered King's Party politics. The nausea from the last trip on that roller coaster is still palpable, the tailspin it put Pakistan's institutions in, still dizzying.

Of course, to begin to actively cut politicians some slack at a time when the PML-N has completely gone off the rails would be patently unfair. The PPP has been in government for nearly two full years, and for almost the entire duration of its existence the government, the PPP leadership, and public policy under the PPP coalition have all been treated with an unforgiving critical lens. This is not to say that an unforgiving critical lens has been unnecessary or unfair. Most of this government and its policies have deserved being skewered by a Pakistani commentariat that is very skilled at barbeque, every night.

The PML-N during this time has been the beneficiary of the greatest era of good fortune ever enjoyed by any political party during the history of this country. Having Asif Ali Zardari as president will do that for you. Having a core cabinet in which Rehman Malik is a visible figure will do that for you. Having terrorists define the national narrative at a time when democratic institutions and public policy should have been front and centre will do that for you.

Nawaz Sharif's decision to support the lawyers' movement for the restoration of the judiciary was central to this era of good fortune. Without having to construct either the narrative for the rule of law or the movement to stand up to military unilateralism, by standing with the lawyers, the PML-N suddenly assumed a significant share of the political identity of the movement.

The Punjab governor's tactless suspension of the Punjab government was even more crucial to the success of the PML-N brand as the party of choice in the hearts and minds of Pakistan's political mainstream, especially in the urban stretch between Rawalpindi and Multan. Pakistanis love an underdog, and despise power-tripping bullies that treat underdogs with contempt.

So what has Nawaz Sharif done with all this instant karma? Not much is the short answer. For beginners, Sharif's first name is still part of the core existence of his party. The party's "Muslim League" credentials, in a country with a PML-Q, a PML (Functional), a PML (Ejaz) and several others are unclear. The only real distinction between the Noon League, and other Leagues is that the folks in Noon are loyal to Nawaz Sharif. Despite having two years to reconstitute the image and the reality of the PML-N as a family owned enterprise, Nawaz Sharif still owns the PML-N -- both as the party's image, and as its reality.

In Punjab, despite enjoying uncontested grassroots political support for the better part of two years, the PML-N provincial government has been unable to manage its image entirely. The provincial government is hardly ever seen as one that is responsible for anything positive, despite having several achievements, topmost being the fostering national integrity through its reasonable positions on the NFC award. Instead, in living rooms and on coffee tables nationwide, the Punjab government is seen as a bickering and clumsy operation, which is easily upended by the irrepressible Salmaan Taseer. The most visible frontman for the Punjab government is often not Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, but rather his law minister Rana Sanaullah -- a political figure that is now firmly associated with sectarian outfits in Punjab. The provincial government can cry hoarse about the moral equivalence of Salman Taseer himself courting sectarian parties in Punjab, but in politics, as in life, it is perception that is reality. The reality is that the PML-N offers no challenge at all to the PPP's skilled manipulation of the news cycle. The overall impact on the PML-N getting routinely outmanoeuvred by Taseer in Punjab is in fact quite significant.

After the lawyers' movement, one of the political demographic groups that the PML-N had the potential to win and to keep was the educated Pakistani urbanite. Too many of these former PPP sympathizers were deeply disappointed with President Zardari's handling of the chief justice. Too many of them were seeking a renewed democratic sizzle in the Pakistani political mainstream -- the kind of sizzle that had not been felt since 1988. Nawaz Sharif's performance during the last months of the lawyers' movement was encouraging to these Pakistanis. But this demographic is not be a solid bet for any party. From an electoral standpoint the group may be of only minor significance, but in terms of the overall national narrative, it has an outsized influence.

Getting knocked down and knocked around by Salman Taseer is bad news for the PML-N among urban Pakistanis in particular because it demonstrates a basic inability to negotiate the political narrative in the country. Over the least two years, instead of articulating a clear and winning position on national security, the PML-N has become known for being anti-Musharraf and pro-Taliban. That is not a winning position at all. It is disabling, to say the least. PML-N leaders outside of the Sharif family are routinely seen on television defending their party's anti-terror position. But what kind of a message machine is Nawaz Sharif running in 2010 if he has to cart out Ahsan Iqbal, Siddique-ul-Farooque, Saad Rafique and Khawaja Asif twice a night to repeat that position?

Now, with the most significant constitutional change anticipated in decades, the Noon League has gone ahead and undermined the last, and most significant pillar of its political strength in the country. It has built its entire politics since March 2009 around restoring the Constitution to a form that reflects its origins, and conforms to the Charter of Democracy. Instead of seizing the opportunity to remove the military's fingerprints from Pakistan's constitution, it has handed a massive victory to those very fingerprints.

As per pattern of course, it has done so in the most ugly and politically damaging way. One of its problems is the name of the NWFP province. By opposing the ANP's proposal it claims it is standing up for speakers of the Hindko and Potowari languages. Can speakers of Brohi, Seraiki and Urdu as their first-languages also expect this kind of moral probity from the PML-N for their languages? Of course not.

Over ten years ago, Nawaz Sharif was wrongly ejected from power. An over-centralization of decision-making and a habit of not listening to dissent within and outside his party made his government in 1999 immune to change. So much has happened since October 1999, but perhaps, to Pakistan's great misfortune, very little has happened in Raiwind. The Nawaz Sharif League it seems is still, immune to change.



The writer advises governments, donors and NGOs on public policy. He can be reached through his website