Dialogue with the future

The writer, a Chevening scholar, studied International Journalism at the University of Sussex.

The recently concluded two-day Islamabad Security Dialogue (ISD), held under the banner of the National Security Division in collaboration with five think-tanks of the country, represented the seminal initiative to revisit the security landscape and initiate a much-needed conversation on its imperatives. Addressed among others by the prime minister and the chief of army staff, the speakers at the Dialogue analyzed national security from the multipronged perspectives and proposed the way forward to address the emergent challenges.

The ISD represents Pakistan’s quest for a new strategic direction in a world dominated by the fast-paced changes that have a direct bearing on national security. The volatility of the world order is underlined by the lack of stable leadership as the international community forges regional alliances to protect their collective interests and push through their agendas.

Several factors can be identified that have shaped the thinking of Pakistan’s political, strategic and diplomatic community, necessitating a candid dialogue to rethink our national security in the larger scheme of things. The following is instructive in this regard:

First, there is a marked global shift from the pursuit of geostrategic goals to prioritizing geo-economic interests to unlock the vast potential that has been held hostage to a mindset locked in the outdated notion of strategic competition. Traditional modes of checkmating the rivals are losing their efficacy to the point of being outdated. The costs of continuing with such an approach are increasing by the day.

Second, the world is facing an uncertain future, a fact endorsed by the raging chaos, which is further underpinned by the global leadership crisis. The US may have elected ‘internationalist’ Joe Biden as president; however, the deep sense of disillusionment with the global order is not going to go away any time soon.

Nor will be the embedded thinking within a large segment of the middle-class white Americans that their country’s involvement in global affairs at the behest of Washington’s establishment has left them economically vulnerable and socially fragmented.

Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China may be advocating the idea of economic globalization with the UN at its core. However, the fact remains that Beijing is still far from replacing the US. The ensuing chaos is further undermining whatever remains of the world order.

The very concept of globalization that demonstrated the amazing potential to knit the global community into an interdependent whole is no longer a credible pillar of Western capitalism. It has been critiqued by mainstream scholarship, and not just the Left that is often scapegoated.

The reliance on the exclusive ability of the markets to correct themselves which forms the ethos of globalization has only resulted in further deepening the specter of inequality, with consequences that go beyond the economic factors. An economic system that does not incorporate mortality as one of the foundational principles in its structure is destined to frustrate hopes pinned on it. A depleting stake in globalization and its real and imagined failure to deliver economic justice has led to popular disenchantment and loss of faith.

Third, linked to the global leadership crisis and the erosion of globalization is the failure of global institutions such as the UN to take the lead in protecting the collective interests of humanity. The implications of the gradual irrelevance of the UN system are grave, making the countries with less influence look for new partnerships and patrons to protect themselves.

The incoherent, disunited and often incompatible way the world, particularly the powerful countries, behaved in the midst of the pandemic has pushed world bodies such as the World Health Organizations further to the periphery. There has been little concern that the approach employed at the cross-purposes has only been detrimental in terms of loss of precious lives and the halting of global economic activity.

Fourth, as the Biden Administration rushes to strengthen partnerships and reassert the claim to global leadership, the world is increasingly paranoid by the prospect of a new bout of the cold war with China. The recent Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the first such virtual interaction between the member countries after Biden took over, represents the US effort to contain China in line with President Bush's formulation of ‘with us or against us’.

The opposition to China enjoys bipartisan support across the party divide in the US. The tactics and approaches to deal with China may vary between Democrats and Republicans but there is a consensus that China is America’s greatest rival and an economic and military competitor. This explains why the US has been a determined critic of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and has entertained suspicions about CPEC, calling it a “debt trap” for Pakistan.

In the foreseeable future, as the competition deepens, Sino-US relations are likely to be defined by the politics of ‘blocs’, sucking up space for countries like Pakistan.

Fifth, the global challenges are equaled, in their intensity as well as implications, by a prevalent sense of chaos and meltdowns that countries are experiencing from inside. As economies shrink and internal fault lines widen, systems are coming under enhanced stress.

Crises such as the coronavirus pandemic have added to the worries of the governments as they take measures to keep the engine of the economy running and protect the poor through cash handouts and other means.

A surge in populism, a trend in ample evidence worldwide, poses a challenge to the legitimacy of governments and the status quo. The disparity between increasing populations and decreasing resource base, particularly in developing countries, has further provided an impetus to restlessness and a sense of disarray.

Sixth, Pakistan is located in a region that has failed to realize its economic potential due to conflicts. The wars in Afghanistan, the current one being the longest-running in American history, have had dire consequences for Pakistan in a variety of ways.

As confusion persists about America’s withdrawal plan from Afghanistan, the fate of the Doha peace accord remains delicately poised. The possibility of a new and more deadly war breaking out becomes a near certainty. There are too many dots to be connected to allow peace a chance, while the deadline of May 1 approaches fast.

Pakistan has, no doubt, played a principal role in the successful clinching of the Doha deal as stated by the army chief. However, it has every reason to be prepared for the post-May scenario in Afghanistan.

Seventh, India is undergoing a historic transformation under Modi’s nationalistic government. The illegal and immoral annexation of Indian-occupied Kashmir has set into motion a train of events that is exposing the reality of the world’s largest democracy. New Delhi’s increasing and palpable tilt towards fascism has not gone unnoticed in world capitals. The downgrading of India’s status from free to partly free democracy by the Freedom House report is the latest indictment of Modi’s India.

These profound changes on the global and regional landscape have opened up an historic opportunity for Pakistan. The country’s successful fight against terrorism established its resilience and a strong sense of purpose in defending its territorial sovereignty. It is only natural that a more determined and self-assured Pakistan articulates its future vision in light of the prevailing realities, a vision that is grounded in the promise of an egalitarian and Islamic welfare state.

The Islamabad Security Dialogue is like a nation talking to itself in a frank manner about the aspirations of its teeming millions and having the clarity to chart the way forward.

This constitutes a good beginning.

Email: amanatchpk@gmail.com

Twitter: @Amanat222