PDM faces an uphill task

As heads of the 10-party opposition alliance, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) meet today (Thursday) in Islamabad, they have an uphill task ahead in drawing a future line of action after the expiry of yet another deadline set for Prime Minister Imran Khan to resign by January 31.

They now have little options left between “vote of no-confidence,” “en bloc resignations” and “long march” to Islamabad till the resignation of Prime Minister. But all this may not be easy amid reports of cracks within. While it is “now or never” for the PML(N) and the JUI(F), it is still “wait and see” for the PPP, which may ask the PDM leadership to give a final deadline before direct action as Senate elections are due in March.

In what would be the first “face-to-face” interaction between PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto and PML (N) leader Maryam Nawaz since the former proposed the option of no-confidence, their fathers, former President Asif Ali Zardari and former Premier Nawaz Sharif, have already discussed the issue with PDM head Maulana Fazlur Rehman. While Zardari has advised both to avoid a decision in haste it will be interesting to see the final outcome on Thursday evening.

While the other important PDM parties like Awami National Party (ANP), BNP (Mengal) and National Party (NP) more or less support long march, PPP leadership have to come out with “numbers” for the vote of no-confidence which on face of it looked difficult. As heated debate is expected among the leaders of the opposition alliance, any cracks or split could turn out to be the last nail in PDM’s coffin.

On the other side, Prime Minister Imran Khan looked confident and on January 31 passed a strong message to the opposition with a high-profile meeting of the new “troika” comprising PM, Army Chief and ISI DG. In the past such troika included the President of Pakistan till the time of Article 58-2(B). He has now been replaced by ISI DG. The message from the PM was clear that “civil and military leadership” are on the same page on internal and external matters. It was followed by business as usual and the Premier continued with attack in his typical manner on the opposition for allegedly seeking NRO and reiterated his consistent position that he would not give NRO. The opposition rejected his claim and believes that he has dragged the establishment into political matters. Sensing the split and confusion within the PDM, PM Imran has challenged them to go for “long march”, bring a vote of no-confidence or resign from the assemblies as he is not going to quit. Thus, in a way he has thrown the ball back in the opposition's court.

In a smart move on Tuesday, he offered his conditional resignation to PDM if the two parties, PPP and PML(N), return the alleged looted money with an immediate response from Maryam Nawaz of surprise resignations.

Imran Khan is confident that his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf(PTI) would come out “clean” from the “foreign funding” case pending in the Election Commission of Pakistan for the past six years, and he is also sure of winning next month’s Senate elections on 51 seats.

However, PM has little justification in defending the unprecedented price-hike and continued increase in the prices of petroleum products. He is giving hope to the people that bad days would be over soon.

In this backdrop, the PDM led by JUI (F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman has little options for the counterattack as Imran Khan apparently enjoys complete confidence of the powerful establishment and the opposition movement so far has failed to create any cracks.

On the contrary, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s direct attack has brought them closer.

The PPP, which wants to retain its Sindh government at all costs and also convinced the other opposition parties, particularly the PML (N), to participate in the Senate elections, has accepted the present system and wants to fight against the government while sitting in the Parliament. Knowing well that until and unless they succeeded in getting support of government’s allies like PML(Q) and MQM(Pakistan) besides some PTI’s dissenting voices, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s suggestion of vote of no-confidence against PM or CM Punjab not only looks impractical but incase moved and failed would further consolidate Imran Khan’s government as happened in the case of vote of no-confidence against Chairman Senate Sadiq Sanjrani last year.

Chances of success in the “long march”, as earlier decided by the PDM and still gets the support of PML(N) and JUI(F), also looked near to impossible except that it could only lead to chaos and threaten the present democratic system as under no circumstances Imran Khan would step down.

The PML(N) is under tremendous pressure as all its frontline leaders are facing cases - some of them are in prison and others are under NAB and FIR investigation. So far, the party looks intact and despite all the efforts the PTI government has not been able to win over many MNAs or MPAs.

As both the ruling coalition and the opposition are now going to concentrate on the Senate elections and they have already sought applications from interested candidates, the opposition is unlikely to give a deadline or decide about either of the two options after Senate polls in the first or second week of March.

At present, it appears PPP is in isolation within PDM as far as the future line of action is concerned for obvious reasons as they have high stake in the system, while it could be an uphill task for other opposition parties to go ahead without the mainstream party. The PML(N) which so far has given tough resistance to the government and still intact despite arrest of its key leaders and dozens of cases against them, has already made up its mind to go ahead with politics of resistance, something rare in the party, once been branded as the product of establishment. At present, it is a battle between Imran Khan and the rest.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO.