US sanctions and Iran

The US should be embarrassed by its attempt to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran by including an arms embargo. These sanctions were ended under a deal reached with Iran in 2015, though President Trump abandoned this agreement in 2018 terming it ludicrous. However, 24 hours after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo triggered a new 30-day countdown to sanctions, a majority of UN Security Council members made it clear they had no intention of going along with this proposal. US allies including the UK, France, Germany and Belgium alongside China, Russia, Vietnam and the other countries making up the 17-member Security Council have opposed any new sanctions. The only support for the US comes from the Dominican Republic.

The Trump administration has however said that it needs no permission and will resume penalties on Iran in 30 days. The US says that it is not concerned by how many countries have backed it.

The 2015 Security Council resolution states that if no council member has proposed a draft resolution to extend sanctions relief on Iran, within 10 days of non-compliance complaint then the body’s president will do so within the remaining 20 days. The US would be able to veto this. The council president for August is Indonesia and for September Niger. Both countries are unlikely to follow the US line. The 2015 resolution also says that the views of the states involved would be taken into consideration before any decision on sanctions. Given the very small view of the majority in the Security Council, UN officials say sanctions are unlikely. Even if the US itself puts forward a draft or asks Dominican Republic to do so it is unlikely the Security Council will accept such a measure.

The move comes ahead of the UN General Assembly meeting which is likely to take place virtually given the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not expected President Trump will meet with any success. But his actions have further heightened tensions in the already troubled Middle East and between Tehran and Washington making a flare-up of some kind more likely. This is bad news for the region and also an embarrassment for Trump who has been emphatically told even by his closest allies that they will not go along with his new efforts to impose sanctions on Iran using provisions with the 2015 UN resolution. It is presumed the main purpose behind Donald Trump’s move was to win over support at home by showing the US has the power to bring ‘enemy’ nations to their knees. However, the lack of success at the Security Council delivers a big blow and Washington will need to rethink its strategies in the future.