India’s inglorious ambitions

The writer is a freelance contributor.

History repeats itself. In the case of India, it is very true as they consistently destabilize the Asian region every few years; 1962 China, 1962 Nepal, 1965, 1971 Pakistan, 1987 Sri Lanka, 2017 China, 2020 China. These are just a few dates when India has used its military either to invade or destabilize its neighbours. Another smaller neighbour, Bhutan, has been completely subjugated as the Indian army has imposed its permanent army bases there.

At the time of the recent border skirmishes between China and India in 2020, the Communist Party of China (CCP) was holding its most important annual political meetings known as Two Sessions. The Chinese ruling party was focused on an agenda dedicated to the economy, Covid-19, Hong Kong and BRI issues.

At this time, Modi’s administration once again decided to start another border fight with China. Indian forces deviated from the agreed route of border patrolling alongside the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a demarcation between the two neighbours. Incursions were made into Chinese territory. This triggered a response from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Initially, a defensive formation that gradually expanded as the PLA’s troops crossed over the LAC. The PLA was able to push back the Indian aggressive posture and occupied the vacant territory as the Indian military retreated. On the LAC, the Indian Army’s 81 and 114 Brigades are deployed to oppose the Chinese forces on Daulat Beg Oldi and adjoining jurisdictions. The BBC reported that 20 Indian army personnel including an officer were killed in the skirmishes along the Ladakh region.

Over the last few decades, China has been following a policy of restraint in the region. However, since the annexation of the disputed territory of Kashmir, and changes in the status of Ladakh by the Modi government, China is now more concerned about India's expansionist policies. The main concern is that it shares borders in two regions – Tibet and Xinjiang.

India is already hosting the Dalai Lama and China would not like to give space to India for interference in Xinjiang. India in its effort to get an enhanced role in Afghanistan has been allegedly accused of supporting Daesh as a balancing power to the Taliban. China will not give Indian planners a chance to use their Daesh assets in the restive province of Xinjiang. Many independent observers have felt that despite India taking this issue to the international media China is relatively quiet about it.

Chinese commentators on condition of anonymity have said that the reasons for being restrained about it is that China is already engaged with a number of issues at the global level; so these skirmishes started by Indian intrusions are a marginal affair. However, the results on the ground have made India realize that any future adventure may get a much bigger and wider response by the local Chinese military commanders.

Western policy circles assume that India will be able to implement US strategic policies against the rise of China. But the economic and military reality is much against India. Comparison of two key metrics is important. At the end of June 2020, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $507 billion and Chinese reserves at $3.5 trillion. Spending on defence also in 2020 shows huge disparity as India’s defence budget is reported to be $65.86 billion and China’s $178 billion. Modi is making public statements on the issue and is visiting the border front. However, this does not compensate for the inadequately equipped Indian military.

The cause of the death of the 20 Indian soldiers was both injuries as well as exposure to sub-zero temperatures in the high-altitude terrain. This fact that Indian army is so ill prepared will not be lost on the Indian people or on Western policymakers. Wang Dehua, South Asia expert at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, says that Beijing is not looking for a fight. “China’s principle is: if we are invaded, we will hit back and our military is stronger than India’s,” he said. “But China does not want a war.”

Over the past decades, the world has literally been set on fire under the context of the ‘New World Order’, a broad policy framework championed by the US and supported by its Western allies. It manifested itself in the destruction of many countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and acceptance of Israel’s illegally occupied territories and further marginalization of the Palestinians. What the ‘New World Order’ has done is created disorder across the globe.

China on the other hand has been working steadily on providing an alternative, but not necessarily a rival, model to the US or its allies. The Chinese worldview is better described as a ‘Progressive World Order’ – meaning that the focus is on what binds countries together, not divides them. Using those binding elements, Chinese leadership under President Xi is focusing on creating cooperation among its near neighbours in Asia and then the same applied to countries across Europe, Latin Americas, and Africa.

This has resulted in less conflicts arising among countries and the emphasis is on shared social and economic development. One aspect of this was that many countries which in the past relied on Chinese goods and services and were not engaged with China on social, economic and development issues found a new global partner. A partner willing to respect their local culture, religion, social values in principle – and happy to assist them in their development.

A progressive world order no doubt will also greatly benefit China. And as it progresses, China’s neighbouring and allied countries – mainly Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, etc – will greatly benefit. This will give the opportunity to Asia as a continent to progress socially and economically. This will be remarkably like the progress of the US and how many countries bordering the US or its allies like Canada, Mexico, UK, Germany, Australia, and others greatly benefitted from the US's vast economic progress.

This adoption of a ‘Progressive World Order’ by many countries has been seen by the US as a threat to its global leadership. China on the other hand has no desire to challenge the US or its allies. However, policies to oppose China and obstruct its growing influence have been set in motion. And the US has found a willing partner in Modi to run its proxy war in Asia. Hence the latest border violations, illegal annexation of Kashmir, changes to the status of Ladakh and testing China’s defence capabilities alongside the LAC.

The broad contours of this US policy are not much different from when Pakistan was entangled in the 70s to be an American ally against Russia. History tells us that being an ally of a faraway friend is of no use. Geography plays a much bigger role in preserving a nation’s defence then defence treaties which are difficult to implement in a crisis.

India continues to stoke enmity with all its neighbours to achieve its inglorious ambition to act as an American stooge in Asia. It is making the region unstable. It is not just interrupting the rise of China but of the whole of Asia and in fact in the long run India’s own viability as a country as well.

Twitter: @SiddiquiAfta