Demographic change

According to a study published in the journal 'The Lancet', the world may look like a considerably changed place by the year 2100. The study has utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 and applied it to 183 countries to predict future trends based on mortality, fertility and migration. First off, it notes that the current pandemic will have no significant impact on the global population's size. The scientists expect that Pakistan’s already massive population may reach about 314 million in 2062 and then decline to 248 million by 2100. This is based on what we already know about patterns of disease, population growth and death rates. The study says that the largest country in the world by 2100 will be India with 1.09 billion people, followed by Nigeria with 791 million and China with 732 million. The US and then Pakistan will follow with considerably smaller population sizes.

What this change will mean for the world in terms of politics, economics and the ongoing global struggle for power is difficult to predict. India’s vastly expanded population may not however give it any increase in influence over the world given that it is expected to have the lowest life expectancy among the top 10 large countries. This indicates that the poor socio-economic statistics for South Asia will not change. Scientists also believe that India and China may see a huge decline in working age populations which would hamper their economic growth. This factor could lead to a shift in global power with nations possessing bigger populations who are working gaining the edge. The increased age of population had generally meant for the world a growth in healthcare costs and other dynamics which have an impact on the development and growth of that particular country.

The study predicts that by the end of the century India, Nigeria, China and the US could emerge as dominant powers. This is of interest given that while India and China are predicted to emerge as global economic powerhouses, the same is currently not true of Nigeria which struggles with internal unrest and also poor development. At the moment, the Covid-19 pandemic may have affected local healthcare systems throughout the world. However, scientists who have analyzed the data believe this impact will not last and other factors will come into play – leading to a change in the manner in which countries are ranked on the basis of their power and influence in a changing world. Right now it may be difficult to say how accurate the projections will be. But they are certainly of interest as we try to understand the future of our globe, the demographics which affect it and what it will look like as a global community in the coming years.