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July 16, 2020

Pakistan’s population may be 314m by 2062: study

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July 16, 2020

ISLAMABAD: Scientists have predicted that Pakistan's population may peak to about 314 million in 2062, and decline to 248 million in 2100.

The analysis, published in the journal The Lancet, used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, and applied novel models to project future global, regional, and national population for 183 countries, including India, US, China, and Japan, and their mortality, fertility, and migration rates.

The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India 1·09 billion, Nigeria 791 million, China 732 million, the USA 336 million and Pakistan 248 million.

DR Congo, Pakistan, India, and Indonesia were forecasted to have the lowest life expectancies among these ten large countries, ranging from 76·9 years in DR Congo to 79·5 years in Indonesia.

India's population may peak to about 1.6 billion in 2048, and decline by 32 per cent to around 1.09 billion in 2100, when it is also expected to be the world's most populous country. According to the researchers, including those from the University of Washington in the US, there may be dramatic declines in working age-populations in countries such as India and China, which they said may hamper economic growth and lead to shifts in global powers.

They said the world could be multipolar at the end of this century, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. According to the scientists, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected local and national health systems throughout the world, and caused over half a million deaths. However, they said the excess deaths due to the pandemic are unlikely to significantly alter longer term forecasting trends of global population.