Census troubles

Will there be a population census in March 2016? The PML-N government only recently repeated the promise of completing the much-needed exercise to confirm population growth and changes in other key indicators in the country. However, the answer to whether the government will be ready to conduct the census in March seems likely to be a no. Despite announcing the census in March this year, allowing a year for the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to prepare for the difficult exercise, the government has yet to release any funds for the year-long exercise. According to report, finance ministry sources appear to have confirmed that the federal government has been debating whether to scrap the census altogether. The idea appears to be to use population data from the Nadra database for future planning and resource distribution, instead of conducting the complex process of conducting a thorough census. There are many problems with working with the Nadra database. A large number of people still don’t have their national identity cards, there is limited data on children and almost no data on people’s income and expenditures. The existing database can give a limited understanding of population expansion, where it is concentrated and how its income patterns are distributed. The only semi-reliable mechanism for obtaining this data is to conduct a full-scale census.
With the last census at least two decades old, much needs to be updated in the data reservoirs of the state. The latest news that the government may be considering scrapping the census exercise altogether does not bode well as planning requires accurate databases. The census had a budget allocation of around Rs14.5 billion with over half of the amount to be spent on security. The PBS has budgeted for around Rs646 million in spending, however, the money has not been provided. The problem is with the government’s own commitment to the exercise, and the idea of using the alternate database possessed by Nadra. The database is usually kept secret and not shared with planners, researchers, and academics for good reason so it is strange that the government is looking to use it for planning purposes. Government sources claim that a census is not a priority when the country is faced with a spiraling budget deficit. With a census every ten years being mandatory in the constitution, we are already seven years over the constitutional limit. With the census integral to the division of resources according the NFC Award, any delay is likely to polarise the federation further.