‘Pakistan should remain neutral in US-Iran tussle’

Islamabad : The Center for Global and Strategic Studies (CGSS) organised an in-house discussion on ‘Escalation between US and Iran; Regional Implications and Options for Pakistan’ here.

Among panelists were defence analysts, former ambassadors and members of academia, who discussed the US-Iran situation in detail and deliberated the possible policy options for Pakistan.

They included CGSS president Major General (r) Syed Khalid Amir Jaffery, former defence minister Lieutenant General (r) Naeem Khalid Lodhi, former ambassadors Major General (r) Shakeel Hussain, Major General (r) Raza Muhammad, Jalil Abbas, Abdul Basit and Zameer Akram, former information secretary Ashfaq Ahmad Gondal, former advocate general of Islamabad High Court Mian Abdul Rauf, Syed Mohammad Ali of the Center for Peace Security and Development, Dr. Mohammad Khan of the International Islamic University, CGSS vice presidents Major General (r) Hafiz Masroor Ahmed and Babur Suhail, Brigadier (r) Akhtar Nawaz Janjua, and CGSS advisory board members Brigadier (r) Abdullah Khan and Brigadier (r) Said Nazeer Momand.

The participants said the US-Iran tussle was three dimensional that is global, regional and its effects on Pakistan.

According to them, Iran’s main objective is withdrawal of the US forces troops from Iraq and other Middle-Eastern countries. The assassination of Qasim Solemani by US has triggered the situation and in response, Iran attacked the Ain al-Asad airbase of US in Iraq. However, Iran does not want any further escalation. The US accused the involvement of Qasem Soleimani in conspiracy against US and killings of many innocent people.

The participants were of the view that reconciliation process is not evident which has created difficulties for Pakistan to take any stance but it is suggested that Pakistan should remain neutral and its territory must not be used for the interest of any other state.

As for military escalation, the US and Iran both will not go for full-fledged war. However, the situation will remain tensed and confrontation is likely to continue.

The US-Iran tensions will result in increase of oil prices and possibilities of proxy war in the Gulf region will further worsen the situation. While the US is trying to bring normalcy in its relations with Pakistan, the current situation will continue to test Pakistan’s various commitments with US in context of US-Taliban peace talks. In addition, Pakistan will have to maintain a strategic balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The US wants complete foothold in Middle East and will continue using such proxy war tactics. Moreover, Arab world is divided and polarised. The developing scenario can also provoke US to target more Iranian interests in the region.

The US is trying to give an impression that Iran is close ally of Russia, which can be a threat for US and Saudi Arabia as well. It is the need of the hour that global powers must use their influence to deescalate the situation. China has offered military assistance to Iraq and Russia is already involved in Syria and Iraq. The US is losing her global allies and is now isolated in the international arena. Among the Muslim countries in Middle East, only Iran has the capable potential to fight against US. Qasem Soleimani’s assassination is the violation of international law and violation of Iraq’s territorial sovereignty.

According to experts, in case of full-fledged war, Pakistan will have to decide its stance and has to come up with a policy. India can also benefit from such situation and can create further tensions at the eastern border of Pakistan. Pakistan must adopt a pragmatic foreign policy to tackle this situation and adopt a management strategy. The leadership of Pakistan must engage in mediation process through bilateral visits to Iran, US and other major players. Pakistan must call Parliamentary Session to discuss National Security and create consensus. In the past, Pakistan has successfully maintained its neutral stance on various global issues including Iran-Iraq war and Yemen crisis. However, it is about time that Pakistan must frame a policy to come up with a comprehensive strategy.