Hurdles to peace

Afghanistan may be closer to peace than at any previous time since late 2001, when US forces invaded to overthrow the then Taliban government. The country has since that time been locked in the most bitter warfare. To end this, the US and the Taliban, facilitated by Pakistan, have engaged in round after round of talks since 2017, with the seventh round underway in Doha. While progress has been made during these direct discussions between the two antagonists in the Afghan war, and also during three separate rounds of talks in Moscow during the same period, there are significant problems. The US has once more called upon Pakistan to help resolve these. According to reports, Pakistan is beginning to state more openly that it has only limited influence with the Taliban, and cannot guarantee sped-up progress or the elusive settlement that all stakeholders hope for.

In Doha, as has been the case at previous peace talks, a key issue is the question of complete US forced withdrawal from Afghanistan. Whereas the Taliban, who hold significant portions of territory within the country insist this is necessary for peace, the US is reluctant to take all its troops and those belonging to its Nato allies out of the country – potentially leaving behind a vacuum. The Taliban have consistently refused to include the Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani in the talks process, holding that this is only a puppet regime propped by the US. There is no way of saying if this perception can in any way change after forthcoming Afghan elections when there will be a contest for power in Kabul. Other issues have been worked out and reinforced at Doha, with the Taliban pledging that they will allow women to work and study in Afghanistan should they take control of the country. Concerns about the welfare and safety of women had been raised by Afghan rights activists who have been putting out reminders of the previous Taliban regime, when tough restrictions impeded women from any role in the public sphere.

In the centre of this conundrum sits Pakistan. Because of its geographical location and political past, Islamabad is closely tied in to events in Kabul. The US has consistently acknowledged this, with Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad visiting Islamabad last month for dialogue with top Pakistan civil and military leaders. Peace is of course in the interest of Pakistan. A settlement in Afghanistan is crucial to ending instability and unrest in the region as a whole, and militancy in Afghanistan is closely linked to militant violence on Pakistan’s territory as well. Pakistan has over the last two years fervently held that Afghanistan is deliberately fomenting violence on its soil. In turn, Kabul accuses Pakistan of supporting the Taliban. Both countries need to demonstrate they are willing to work with each other. Only once this happens can the Afghanistan peace process result in an agreement which is beneficial to all the people of the region and can help them recover from decades of war. The world needs to play a part in facilitating this and the evidence that other nations, including Russia, are ready to act as negotiators and take forward the process is welcome. We hope the good will lasts.