The year that was

The only constant in Pakistan is crisis. Be it the security challenges posed by militancy, the instability of democracy or the lurking threat of economic freefall, we are always flirting with disaster. Once again, in the year that has just ended, Pakistan was a country in transition. The shift in power from the PML-N to the PTI in elections that were anything but uncontroversial hinted at the fragility that still exists in our system more than a decade after the end of military rule. The election campaign was marred by the opposition making allegations of rigging, and multiple militant attacks in the days before the election showed how Pakistan is yet to break the back of this existential threat. On Election Day itself the results were suspiciously delayed because of supposed technical errors in voting software. Right from the start of the year, the incumbents faced a crisis, with the Panama leaks fallout leading to disqualification and jail time for Nawaz Sharif in cases that have invited critical legal scrutiny.

While the PTI’s path to power seemed rather smooth, the road since has been rocky. The new government inherited economic problems that have only been made worse by the waffling and U-turns of the party. Prime Minister Imran Khan has been less decisive as a leader than he was as a campaigner. The miracles promised by CPEC are yet to materialise and the loans taken by Pakistan are coming due in 2019. One of the first of many campaign pledges the PTI government had to break was its promise to never go begging to the IMF. Others are sure to follow as the country faces the prospect of double-digit inflation.

Even developments that could be viewed as positive in 2018 are open to pessimistic interpretations. Many rejoiced that the justice system was taking a strong stand against corruption, be it in the corruption verdicts delivered against the Sharif family or the investigation into the fake accounts scandal implicating the leadership of the PPP. But an equal number of people were alarmed that accountability was yet again being used as a tool to go after opposition politicians – with the 172 names placed on the ECL in the last days of 2018 making the argument gain even more traction. And, while, the Supreme Court verdict acquitting Aasia Bibi after she spent so many years languishing on death row was – and should be celebrated – the rise of the right wing became obvious when the government allowed the extremist TLP to once again take over the streets. And, as the state yet again capitulated in front of a small band of hate-mongers, progressive social activists continued to go missing and many in Pakistan’s media spoke of an unprecedented muzzling of the freedom of speech. When the history of Pakistan is written, the year 2018 will also be seen as a big year for social resistance movements demanding equal rights for groups that have faced official discrimination. The state has continued to ignore their pleas for justice. It is surely not a coincidence that the public space for dissent shrunk in the year that Pakistan lost Asma Jehangir, one of the bravest and most dedicated activists the country has ever known. The country also lost other known citizens, notably Asghar Khan and Kulsoom Nawaz.

On the international front, the year was one of stasis – and the fault did not rest entirely with Pakistan. The leaders of India and the US spent the year levelling unfounded accusations and moving further away from Pakistan. Afghanistan too followed suit. This naturally moved Pakistan even closer to China with whom our alliance is as firm as ever. But there is some hope for the year ahead. With the US now trying to broker a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban, it has finally realised it may need Pakistan’s presence at the negotiating table. Pakistan also strengthened its relationship with Saudi Arabia and its Middle Eastern allies, in the form of accepting economic assistance. The cost of this assistance, however, remains unknown.

It may be difficult for the year that follows to be as fraught as the one that just passed. But the first few months of the PTI government have shown that it is not prepared for governance and has little idea of how to manage our economic woes. The TTP and its allies are still active and other militant and extremist groups are inexplicably and disturbingly being given some form of official recognition. On top of that, one can only play a guessing game of which politician will be the next to end up in court or prison or which minister will be the next to abuse their power. One thing, though, is for certain: 2019 may well end up being as wild a ride as 2018.