‘Positive trends to emerge from by-poll’

Karachi
As was expected, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) succeeded in winning the National Assembly constituency NA-246 through Thursday’s by-poll, according to unofficial results. But political analysts believe several new trends will emerge from the by-poll, which was considered one of the most attention-grabbing and charged elections in the political history of the country.
According to unofficial results, MQM candidate Kanwar Naveed Jameel won by securing 93,125 votes, while Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) candidate Imran Ismail and Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Rashid Naseem bagged 16,932 and less than 10,000 votes, respectively.
The seat had fallen vacant after the resignation of Nabil Gabol, who had won the seat on an MQM ticket in the May 11, 2013 general election.
Analysts had predicted that the MQM would win the constituency easily as it had a large support base in the majority Urdu-speaking population, a strong organisational support and a track record of winning the seat by great margins since 1988.

MQM was under pressure
Political observers believe that the MQM was under pressure during the by-election.
“It was purely an Urdu-speakers’ majority area and it was very easy for the MQM to win this seat in the past,” said Naufal Ali, a resident of the constituency who teaches at a college. “But in this by-election, the MQM faced a tough time and worked hard to retain the seat.”
The March 11 raid on the MQM headquarters, Nine Zero, arrests of its workers and a chain of following incidents had put immense pressure on the party before the by-election, analysts believe.
Also, the PTI’s aggressive entry in the constituency had also worried the Muttahida as the latter thought the former was being used by intelligence agencies against it, they say.
The MQM fielded non-Mohajir candidates in the last two general elections and one by-election in this constituency in order to portray itself as a national party rather than a regional party. But this time, they fielded a veteran Urdu-speaker leader. Also, the party again used the ‘Mohajir card’ for getting support from the constituents as the area is an 82 percent Urdu-speaking majority constituency. “It has ruined the MQM’s hard efforts to a great extent to transform itself from an Urdu-speaking centric party to a federal party,” said a political analyst.
He said that after efforts of the PTI and the JI to muster support from sect-based parties, the MQM also tried to seek support from small sect-based groups, which spoiled its liberal politics.
However, a section of analysts thinks differently. Naimat Khan, a Karachi-based journalist, said the MQM successfully exploited the post-Nine Zero raid situation and worked much among the Urdu-speaking community.

Anti-MQM vote bank split After failing to persuade each other to withdraw their candidate from the NA-246 race, the PTI and JI’s decision to participate in Wednesday’s by-poll separately divided the anti-MQM voters.
Although the MQM was the favourite in NA-246 in light of its electoral history, analysts believe that the alliance between the JI and the PTI could have doubled their strength and given a tough time to the Muttahida in the by-poll.
“The MQM would have still won the seat, but by making an alliance with the JI, the PTI could have polled more than 40,000 votes,” said Riaz Sohail, a veteran journalist who covered the by-poll. Differences between the JI and the PTI on withdrawing candidates in favour of each other had made the MQM confident that it could win the seat easily, he maintained.
Khan was of view that the JI’s inflexible attitude also prevented PTI from winning a respectable total. “The JI Karachi leadership took the by-poll as an issue of its political survival in the city and that was the reason that the JI worked hard to maximise its vote bank in the constituency,” Khan told The News.
Sohail and Khan both agreed that the PTI had been able to muster votes from Shia and Ismaili communities in the constituency. “The two communities traditionally do not give votes to the JI and like, in the 2013 general polls, they again supported the PTI,” said Khan. Sohail said the PTI also succeeded in getting votes from residents from the upper-middle class in FB Area.
HRCP visits polling stations
A six-member team of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) visited polling stations and observed the polling process.
Asad Iqbal Butt, vice-chairperson of the HRCP, who led the team, said that although there were complaints of delays in the voting process and few incidents of scuffles between activists of political parties, the election process overall was peaceful.
He said that the by-poll would have a positive impact on the city’s politics. “We saw overall a cooperative relationship between the leaders of all key political parties contesting the polls,” Butt said.