Little from the US

The latest defence spending bill passed by the US Congress continues the trend of drastically slashing security aid to Pakistan. The US will now only be providing $150 million a year, down from a figure of $350 million which itself represented a drastic cut from the over billion dollars a year given to Pakistan by the Obama administration. This is in keeping with the stated aims of US President Donald Trump who wants to reduce the amount the US gives to other countries. He has been trying to browbeat Nato countries to contribute more to the transatlantic alliance and has often complained about the size of the US foreign aid budget. The biggest shift is not in the amount the US has cut since it has long signalled its displeasure at Pakistan but that the new defence bill takes out the condition that Pakistan take action against the Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban. When the Trump administration had previously refused to sign off on Coalition Support Fund reimbursements to Pakistan, its rationale for doing so was the fact that we weren’t taking sufficient action against the militant groups. Pakistan has often complained about the stringent conditions the US attached to any aid it gave. Those conditions have now gone but so has much of the aid.

Removing the references to the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban may be an acknowledgement by the US that it no longer has the ability to dictate terms to Pakistan. Our growing partnership with China and the money that has poured in through the auspices of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has reduced whatever leverage the US had over us. That doesn’t mean, however, that the US won’t still try to counter Pakistan through other means. Just this week US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned the IMF not to give Pakistan another bailout package if that money will be used to pay back loans to China. We will likely need as much as $12 billion from the IMF and could be caught in the global power rivalry between the US and China. The US has clearly decided to put all its eggs in the Indian basket and reduce ties with Pakistan to the bare minimum. That doesn’t mean the two countries can’t cooperate on areas of mutual interest. The US strategy of sending more troops to Afghanistan has not yielded any military breakthroughs and the Trump administration now realises it needs to hold talks with the Taliban. Pakistan could have a pivotal role to play in setting up negotiations. The challenge for the new government will be to continue moving away from dependence on the US while still maintaining a working relationship.