New water reservoirs

Since the development of the Tarbela water reservoir with the capacity of nearly nine million acre feet (maf) in 1976, only two new storages have been built in the country – the raised Mangla Dam additional storage of 2.8 maf and the Gomal Dam reservoir of 0.9 maf, both completed in 2011.
It is, therefore, heartening to note that the present government has sanctioned a huge sum of Rs55 billion for the land acquisition cost of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. It is hoped that all remaining privately owned land measuring nearly 18000 acres will be acquired quickly and the GB administration would transfer the entire state-owned ‘ghair mumkin’ areas to Wapda at the earliest. For this to happen quickly the number of land acquisition collectors would need to be increased four-folds as has already been suggested.
The population of the country has risen from 31 million 60 years back to nearly 190 million today. To this we add nearly four million hungry mouths annually. The per capita availability of water has decreased five times during this period and today barely amounts to a thousand cumex. And every day it shrinks further.
There is no doubt that insufficient electric power has serious economic consequences but this shortage is a mere nuisance compared to the impending water crisis which could spell disaster within thirty years. Today there is a fine balance between the availability and need of water but what will happen tomorrow? We will experience not water scarcity but water starvation. People will likely perish of thirst and hunger when the population reaches 350 million.
Since the World Bank has already undertaken to provide finances for the construction of the first phase of the Dasu Dam costing $6 billion, it is hoped this work will soon be started. Even though Dasu will not store any water, it will be able to generate about seven billion electricity units annually in five years’ time.
The really important project, however, remains the Diamer-Bhasha Dam which is expected to store six million acre feet of water besides generating 19 billion energy units from an installed capacity of 4500 megawatt. Fortunately there is complete national consensus on building the dam as exhibited in the Council of Common Interests decision in July 2010.
It is time now to arrange the finances for the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. This should not be too serious a problem once the land is acquired through the government’s own resources. Pakistan should not depend any longer on the Asian Development Bank acting as the lead donor for the project despite all its previous commitments. Experience has shown that though the ADB’s country’s office here remains enthusiastic for this project its head office in Manila has many reservations.
Pakistan has already lost six years talking to the ADB for such financing. Each year’s delay adds nearly half a billion dollars to the cost of the project. What could have been built for 11 billion dollars earlier would cost 15 billion today. Hark the strategist’s advice in not enforcing an error!
The best course now would be to request the Chinese government to provide a loan of $4 billion for the civil works with the contract awarded to a reputable Chinese company – but only after competitive bidding. Such a loan was earlier offered and this amount would take care of all civil works including the diversionary tunnels and the main dam. The electrical and mechanical equipment and the switchyard costing another $4 billion could be bought from efficient European sources through suppliers’ credits.
In the two meetings Wapda held with five of the most reputable European suppliers some years back a keen interest was shown in not only offering equipment but arranging bank credits as well. Further, the newly established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with a paid up capital of $50 billion could also be tapped for credit. Any financial contribution by the ADB would of course be helpful but we should not be too optimistic of that.
The remaining project costs such as the interest during construction, consultants’ supervision fees, environmental mitigation measures and development of model villages could be financed by private banks and other donors including the IDB and AID.
Pakistan can ill afford further delays on Diamer-Bhasha and should proceed ahead with purpose. At present foreign consultants are undertaking the ‘due diligence’ studies of the environment and the engineering designs of the dam which would take about 18 months to complete. There is a debate on whether a roller compact concrete design or a rock-filled concrete faced design would be more suitable for the site. Those best qualified can decide this.
Some problems could be encountered during construction including those relating to security and logistics but these are not insurmountable. The government has already sanctioned a new wing of the Gilgit Baltistan Scouts for security of the area and it is suggested that a study be undertaken for assessing the feasibility of transporting material to the sites by river barges upstream from Tarbela.
Between now and the completion of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam the provincial governments need to take cogent steps in conserving our water resources through pricing of water, discouraging the cultivation of high water-use crops like sugarcane and rice and preventing water pollution.
The writer is former chairman Wapda and has served as chief secretary Gilgit-Baltistan, AJK, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh. Email: shakildurrani@ymail.com