Erdogan’s snap polls: bold gambit or checkmate?

ANKARA: - With his stunning call for elections in just over two months, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to wrong-foot an unprepared opposition and capitalise on surging nationalist sentiment after his operation in Syria, analysts say.

Erdogan and his party will be the strong favourites to win the simultaneous presidential and parliamentary polls on June 24 but may still be taking a risk against the background of a deteriorating economy.

The polls are significant because after the elections a new executive presidency — which critics worry will give the head of state authoritarian powers — will come into force.And if he wins a new five-year mandate then Erdogan — who has already been in power as premier and then president for 15 years — will be able to enter a third decade in office.

“(Erdogan) wants to show he is the absolute master of the political agenda,” said Dorothee Schmid, head of the French Institute of International Relations’ (IFRI) Turkey Programme. The polls had originally been due to be held on November 3, 2019.

“The effect of surprise is part of his tactics to control the opposition, both inside and out, thus restoring the balance of power in his favour,” said Schmid.The main opposition secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) has yet to even name its presidential candidate while the breakaway nationalist formation of ex-interior minister Meral Aksener, the Iyi (Good) Party, was only set up in October.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), meanwhile, has been weakened by the arrests of its most prominent figures and will prioritise making the 10 percent threshold to win seats in parliament. “Checkmate”, read the headline in pro-government daily Yeni Safak on its front page Thursday.

Berk Esen, assistant professor at the department of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, said the timing reduced the chance of any opposition alliance that could rattle Erdogan. “Erdogan may have wanted to go for elections before opposition parties could strike a deal on an electoral coalition.”