New Delhi rife with rumours of surgical strike

ISLAMABAD: Rumours of a ‘surgical strike’ against Pakistan across the Line of Control (LoC) have started to circulate in New Delhi where the Indian media and Indian former officials tell The News that Pakistan recalling its High Commissioner for “consultations” for an indefinite period, and the claims of both sides of harassment of their senior diplomats has taken a very “serious” turn, but talk of “surgical strike” is nothing new.

Though officially, there is no talk of these strikes in the present scenario, Indian sources speaking to The News pointed to the Modi government repeatedly warning of surgical strikes while claiming that they had carried out such a strike in 2016.

Many Indians including eminent citizens from the Concerned Citizens Group (CCG) are of the view that the heating of the border – whether on the LoC or the International Border (IB) – is pointless. It has not curbed terrorism and nor does it address the issue of growing militancy in Indian-Held Jammu and Kashmir. Nobody is winning in Kashmir because of intensified cross-border shelling, they point out.

Officials here had earlier warned New Delhi that Pakistan was fully capable of defending itself and there should not be any misadventure based on miscalculation. Later, Indian Army Chief Bipin Rawat had boasted that India was not deterred by Pakistan’s tactical nukes.

“If we will have to really confront the Pakistanis, and a task is given to us, we are not going to say we cannot cross the border because they have nuclear weapons”, Rawat had claimed.

Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif responded by tweeting, “This is very irresponsible and not befitting his office”.

Saner elements in India have appealed to the governments of India and Pakistan to come together and take the political initiative for reviving the ceasefire as a first step towards peace. This alone would demonstrate their wisdom, prevent loss of lives of both soldiers and civilians and create the conditions for a dialogue for resolving all bilateral issues amicably.

Today apart from India upping the ante, the complete negation of the 2003 Ceasefire Agreement along the LoC and the Working Boundary is worrying the Indian Concerned Citizens Group (CCG), who after a visit to Srinagar and Jammu say that the ceasefire was violated with impunity with small arms fire giving way to heavy mortar and finally, even artillery.

The unusual escalation resulted in a high death toll – the casualties in January 2018 alone equaled the figure for the entire 2017. And 2017 itself was an exceptional year for ceasefire violations, as they represented a six-fold increase compared to 2015.

The report made available to The News records some mature voices in Indian Held Kashmir, also among the residents of these border villages. Many believe that war is no option. “Don’t give ‘munh tod jawab’ (jaw breaking reply) to Pakistan from here because then we, who live on the border, are the sufferers. Give a tough reply from Delhi or Mumbai,” one of them said.

Another said, “We think that the solution to this problem is ceasefire. India and Pakistan should come to an understanding on maintaining peace on the LoC as they had done earlier. That worked for a decade or more. But for that they have to sit across the table as in today’s day and age it is impossible for either side to capture and hold onto the territory of the other. Stop tough talk with mortar shelling, talk to each other.” The Group comprised Yashwant Sinha (former finance and external affairs minister), Air Vice Marshal (R) Kapil Kak, Sushobha Barve (Executive Secretary of Centre for Dialogue and Reconciliation) and Bharat Bhushan (journalist).

The group was told that the communal divide in Jammu is being promoted by politically ambitious leaders who are intent on tearing apart the rich and diverse social fabric of the region for their short-term political benefits. People in Jammu complained that there is no civil society in Jammu and that the space for civil society’s activities had been taken over by communal politicians.

Many believe that the PDP-BJP government thrives on communal divisions by promoting polarising voices to represent the sentiment in Jammu and in the Valley. This divides and alienates people. This was described as ‘soft separatism’ by a public intellectual. The report while focusing on the Valley points out that there was growing feeling in the Valley that politics had not worked in the state and that ceasefire or the lack of it made no difference.

The hopes of the Kashmiris in Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to have been dashed. They had thought that he would carry forward the initiatives of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. However, now they felt that he has brought nothing but despair and disappointment in Kashmir. As a result, the constituency for peace and peace-building through confidence building measures (CBMs), elections and dialogue, has been eroded. Now even to suggest the use of these instrumentalities for peace is to invite derision. Despite its earlier enthusiasm, the local citizenry does not now place much faith in the frequent forays of the Home Ministry’s special interlocutor to the state. In effect, the Modi government’s policies have pulled the rug from under the feet of those who did not support militancy, violence and radicalisation. It is this all prevailing desperation which has given rise to militancy and people accepting the use of violence by youngsters. In South Kashmir the perception is that every youngster is a militant – the only difference is that some are armed and others unarmed. Militancy has also now spread to Srinagar.

As for the Modi government’s Kashmir policy, there is a feeling that since it is unable to control terrorism, it wants its constituency to feel that India is effectively replying to Pakistan which is projected as the root cause of all problems in Kashmir. Under these circumstances the locals have internalised the fact that while violence in Kashmir will wax and wane, politically nothing will happen to address their concerns. What also seems to have added to the despair of Kashmiris is that they see little support from the Indian mainstream intellectuals and opinion makers. Even those who were never influenced by Pakistan see little hope when they look towards Delhi. The net result is that the social base for a robust relationship with rest of India has shrunk. This has also impacted the younger generation as they do not view any dialogue with Delhi with any element of hope. At the end of its fourth visit to the state, the members of the CCG have come to the following conclusions:

1. The heating of the border – whether on the LoC or the IB – is pointless. It has not curbed terrorism and nor does it address the issue of growing militancy in J&K.

2. Cross-border firing is a sheer waste of resources and unnecessarily endangers the lives of people living adjacent to the border. While we have no idea of the collateral civilian damage on the other side, the scenes of devastation and the stories of lives and livelihoods destroyed on the Indian side are heart-rending. No citizen of India should have to live in perpetual fear and in a traumatic environment as these people do.

3. Nobody is winning in Kashmir because of intensified cross-border shelling.

4. Both India and Pakistan need to restart the dialogue between them. It is surprising that while soldiers and civilians are dying, the two governments are secretly in touch with their respective National Security Advisers meeting in a third country. The Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two countries are also in regular telephonic contact. This is despite the conflict on the LoC and the declaration by India that terror and talks do not go together. Since talks are going on in surreptitious as well as an open manner, it is better that the dialogue is formalised, structured and taken to a political level to make it accountable. The future of India-Pakistan relations must not be made hostage to the political fortunes of any individual or political party.

5. The most immediate objective of the two sides should be to stop the shelling on the LoC and the IB. This is not a difficult objective and this had been achieved during the first tenure of the National Democratic Alliance government. The ceasefire proclamation of 26 November 2003 should be resuscitated to make the LoC a line of peace, which is what it was meant to be.

6. It is not sufficient for the DGMOs of the two sides to talk on the phone. They must meet and India should not refuse a meeting considering that the last time they met was in 2013. In fact, it might help if these meetings are held frequently so that both sides learn to act with greater restraint.