The next 14 days

Accountability Court-1 Judge Mohammad Bashir, who is hearing graft cases against ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his family members, retires in the third week of March – 14 days from today.

On September 13, 2017, Judge Mohammad Bashir had issued summons on the basis of the reference against Nawaz Sharif and his family regarding the ownership of offshore companies that was filed by NAB. On March 13, 2018, the six-month deadline set by the Supreme Court of Pakistan will be over. Lo and behold, a lot has already happened and a lot more will be happening in the following 14 days.

Nawaz Sharif’s current political strategy revolves around three pillars. First, trying to move his legal battles from the Supreme Court to the ‘court of the people’. Second, trying to influence the courts through his street power. Third, preparing crowds to reject the decision of the accountability court (in case the decision goes against Nawaz Sharif). Apparently, all three pillars have come crashing down.

Undoubtedly, Nawaz Sharif’s strategy has had successes. Focus on his politics: Nawaz Sharif is playing anti-establishment politics while Shahbaz Sharif plays pro-establishment politics. Lo and behold, whoever wins the Sharif family wins. Focus on his politics: Nawaz Sharif is both the government and the opposition. Can anyone beat that? Focus on his politics: It started out as Nawaz Sharif versus the judiciary. Lo and behold, now it is parliament versus the judiciary.

The billion-dollar question now is the ‘war of succession’ within the PML-N. To be certain, Nawaz Sharif’s relationship with party senators, MNAs and MPAs is not an ideological one. The leaders in our political parties maintain their grip over their parties through three means: party tickets, development funds and the 14th Amendment. What will happen to Nawaz Sharif’s grip over the PML-N if he is unable to deliver either the party tickets or development funds?

Next. A five-member SC bench has already completed hearing a set of appeals to determine the period of disqualification of a member of parliament. Plus, a verdict out of the accountability court is expected in March.

Who within the PML-N will capture the future strategy-hawks or doves? This will be critical because Nawaz Sharif’s political future will depend on the strategy adopted. Who will be the new president of the PML-N? Two choices: the Altaf Hussain model or a new hybrid? If Kulsoom Nawaz is picked as the new president, then Nawaz Sharif is seeking to further the conflict. If Shahbaz Sharif is picked, then there will be some meaningful transition.

The other billion-dollar question is: who are the guns with? On February 1, the Maldives Supreme Court ordered the release of imprisoned opposition politicians. Maldives President Abdulla Yameen defied the Supreme Court’s orders.

On February 5, President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency and ordered Major-General Ahmed Shivam, the chief of the Defence Force (total personnel: 5,000), to arrest the judges of the Supreme Court. At that point in time, the balance of power was in the hands of Major-General Ahmed Shivam. The Maldives National Defence Force stormed the Supreme Court and arrested the judges. The president won.

In Pakistan, a lot has already happened and a lot more will be happening in the following 14 days.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com

Twitter: @saleemfarrukh