The last push before polls

For the joint opposition, this is the last push against the PML-N and Sharif brothers. For the PML-N, this is opposition's last attempt before their ultimate defeat in elections, as the final phase of dharna will start today in Lahore and no one knows what turn it may take in the next few days.

The Senate and general elections depend on this last push. For both sides, it is a now or never-like situation. The opposition's failure will pave the way for smooth Senate and general elections.

This time the opposition has picked Lahore as the centre to launch a final assault on the government. The PML-N, which faces problems both within and outside the party, fears that the move can derail democracy.

Opposition sources confirmed that the movement would be 'now or never' and continue till the fall of the Punjab government or the PML-N. While the dharna is stated to be aimed at seeking justice for the Model Town victims and seven-year-old Zainab, the campaign is now too much politicised and beyond 'Movement for Justice’.

Political temperature is very likely to go high from today and the reports coming from the opposition camp suggest it is surely further go up; however, the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif have refused to bow down despite Shahbaz Sharif's advice to 'go slow’.

But the PML-N’s own house is in disorder as it faces difficulties in its own rank and file. The differences between the two senior party leaders Chaudhry Nisar and Senator Pervaiz Rashid at this stage are a serious blow to Nawaz Sharif. His daughter Maryam Nawaz looked in a more aggressive and defiant mood, as she termed the opposition’s decision to join hand as part of game plan.

The opposition is keeping all the options under consideration – including resignation and dissolution of assemblies (KP and Sindh), but will use it phase-wise to push Shahbaz Sharif to resign. On the other hand, the PML-N sources not only ruled out his resignation but also termed the opposition’s move as part of a grand conspiracy which has triggered from Balochistan.

While the opposition will go ahead with its plan which can put Punjab's capital and the stronghold of Sharifs to a practical halt, Nawaz Sharif so far has not abandoned his people's contact campaign.

All three key opposition leaders – Imran Khan, Asif Ali Zardari and Dr Tahirul Qadri – have reached an understanding to give a final blow to oust the Punjab government with a hope that the federal government and the PML-N will collapse if they succeeded in overthrowing Shahbaz.

This will be for the first time when these three leaders particularly Imran Khan and Asif Zardari would be at one platform with a one-point agenda – the fall of Sharifs or what they themselves called the fall of Takht-e-Lahore.

They are united and have agreed on going all out as opposition also knows that smooth sailing till the next elections, including Senate polls, will not only pave the way for the PML-N to complete its term but they may also find it difficult to defeat the Sharifs in Punjab.

PTI, PPP and PAT along with Jamaat-e-Islami are quite capable of creating unrest but the future line of action post-Jan 17 would be announced by the opposition's steering committee during the dharna through Dr Tahirul Qadri.

The opposition knows that if the PML-N governments remain intact till May, it may not easy for them to shake the Sharif's rule and difficult to restrict the PML in the race for 140 National Assembly seats (after delimitation) in Punjab.

There are clear indications that the dharna would later be joined by Tehreek-e-Khatam-e-Nubawwat of Ahmad Sialvi, while Tehreek-e-Labaik is keeping distance with the opposition move.

Sources say the Difa-e-Pakistan Council, which also includes Jamaat-ud-Dawa and its political wing Milli Muslim League besides JUI-S [which recently agreed to form an alliance with PTI], may also join hands.

The Punjab police and administration will face a real test, as any Kasur-like mishap [police firing on mob) could prove fatal for the PML-N and Punjab government.

Sources in the Punjab government, quoting some intelligence sources, revealed that the opposition was in a violent mood and they had worked out Plan A and B. They did not rule out the possibility of calling out Rangers if the dharna goes beyond Jan 17 or they announce a countrywide plan and focus on Punjab.

The PML-N, on the other hand, sees a link between the mini coup in Baluchistan and the Jan 17 dharna as part of opposition’s game plan to create political turmoil before Senate and general elections.

Only history will judge whose game plan it was to stage a coup against the PML-N in Baluchistan when only five or six months before general elections, a senior PML (N) leader told me on condition of anonymity.

In a bid to counter the opposition move, the top brass of PML-N led by Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Shahbaz Sharif, Khawaja Saad Rafiq and others had a marathon discussion over opposition's and options available in case of any violence.

They also considered a strategy in case the opposition decides in favour of on en bloc resignations and dissolution of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh assemblies besides resigning from the National and Punjab assemblies.

Any mishap or mishandling on part of Sharifs and their administration could threaten the democratic system as well. The PML-N leadership which met on Monday discussed all options to ensure smooth Senate elections and see Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi complete the remaining term.

There have been rumours and speculations about the final show down in the next two weeks. Whoever survives the final blow may have the last laugh in the run up to the Senate and next general elections.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO