Why MQM-Pakistan’s APC failed

All is not lost for MQM-Pakistan despite the embarrassment caused by the decision of PPP, JI, PTI and ANP not to attend the APC, as three factions of MQM did come closer to each other for the possible unity before elections minus the MQM-London.

In the last 72 hours, the years-old political tension has eased between MQM-Pakistan, PSP and MQM-Haqqiqi. It is true that the decision to call the APC was taken in haste and so was the decision to postpone it as the very presence of Dr Farooq Sattar, Syed Mustafa Kamal and Afaq Ahmad on table would have perhaps given more media hype than the presence of other parties. But at the same time, it would not have served the purpose for which MQM-Pakistan had called the APC.

The surprise exit of PML-F, which had remained a close ally of MQM in the past and the two may need each other in 2018, indicates that something went wrong somewhere that smaller parties also decided to stay away.

While the decision to boycott the APC could be part of a grand strategy to keep the MQM vote bank divided till the next elections, the pressure on MQM-Pakistan from certain quarters to surrender the name of Muttahida Qaumi Movement is mounting and may increase further.

The strategists certainly want to see new-look parties, new faces and new venues for politics unlike Azizabad, Khursheed Memorial, Hall, Jinnah Ground or the terminologies like sector or unit in-charge in Karachi’s politics.

Secondly, if no single party emerges as the 'sole representative' of Karachi in the next elections, it would also go well for different political and relevant quarters dealing with the Karachi chapter.

In order to reduce further tension and possible violence in elections, the move is to pursue both MQM-Pakistan and PSP to agree on a mutual name for the new party on which MQM-H would also agree.

While the three have agreed to reduce tension and come close to each other and may further negotiate, merger at this stage look a remote possibility. The MQM-Pakistan has not agreed to give up the name but is ready to go ahead for any alliance.

The other mainstream parties also see it as window of opportunity in the next elections for the 25 National Assembly seats in Karachi beside seats from other urban centres like Sukkur, Mirpurkhas and Hyderabad. "It is also politics as divide and rule strategy is applicable to the rulers and the establishment, but at times also suits us,” a PTI leader said on the condition of anonymity.

So, it’s all about electoral politics and these four parties would certainly not like to see the MQM factions get united again. The MQM-London would also be happy over the failure of APC, as it considered it a joint meeting of anti-MQM founder factions, which could not be materialised.

Sources say the MQM-London, in the absence of any option to contest next elections, may consider strategy for an effective boycott which again would only suit PPP, JI, ANP and PTI. Some of their leaders told this writer that even 40 per cent response to the boycott call would ensure 50 per cent seats for them in 2018.

The setback to the MQM-Pakistan also suits MQM-London as they certainly don't want the party minus the founder or London should grow and influence the voters and they would also blame the PPP and others for not showing any interest in Karachi.

The PPP, ANP and JI did not come out with any convincing reasons for not attending the APC, as they, they had praised the MQM-Pakistan’s post-August 22 decision to delink itself from the MQM founder.

The divided Karachi mandate strategy is working out well and the results of the last two by-elections which PPP won have further encouraged the strategists for urban Sindh in the post-operation Karachi.

The PPP and its Sindh government had already taken control of major development funds for Karachi and practically crippled the mayor and local government powers. The PPP – under Saeed Ghani, who was especially assigned the task of ‘Karachi 2018’  along with Dr Asim Hussain and led by CM Murad Ali Shah and Nisar Khuhro – is optimistic about much better results and the possible allies like ANP.

On the other hand, the PTI, which had initially agreed on attending the APC but change its mind because of the pressure from some other leaders, also hopes that they could benefit from the divided MQM mandate and could attract Urdu-speaking voters because of Imran Khan's national image.

The JI, which could not recover from its own internal problems in the city since the decision to boycott the 2013 elections, is also thinks that a divided MQM suits them in its previous strongholds in District Central

The ANP's reliance is on the Pashtun belt, particularly in District West, and the alliance with PPP could give them one or two provincial seats, if not in the National Assembly.

As a senior PPP leader from Baluchistan, who was in Karachi and present in the same hotel where the APC was called, made interesting remarks. “Pakistani politics is like a tender with one difference. Whoever will give high bidding will get the slot. Tenders for 2018 elections will be open by the end of this year or early 2018," he said.

"Tender politics have now been redefined in Pakistani politics and new bidders have also come to challenge old guards like PPP, PML-N and MQM,” he added. While the presence of some of the old MQM leaders and workers in the conference hall, including many who have been disillusioned, clearly indicate that the MQM-Pakistan is reaching out to its old cadre. The absence of MQM-London from mainstream and the division of MQM into factions would certainly benefit other parties in the polls, provided Farooq Sattar and Co mend their differences with the PSP or convinced its voters not to divide the mandate.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang  

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO