The changing political scenario

In the fast changing scenario, political tension is mounting between the ruling and opposition parties and their allies, as three-member bench of the Supreme Court reserved order on 'Panama case,' and over the question of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's possible disqualification. Though no date for the order has been given, there is the indication that it is expected next week. 

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif still holds the 'key' in this scenario, as political development revolves around him, both in favour or against. For his supporters, his decision to 'fight and defy' is the right way in given circumstance while others believe that he should nominate his replacement in case of any adverse order. 

Sources said the PM's decision would set the tone for his government and party's strategy as the ruling party is expecting the decision next week. While there are no defections in the party, the issue between Interior Minister Ch. Nisar and PML-N top leadership including the PM remained unresolved and in the last one week, he has not been part of any consultative meetings, but has not resigned.

Sharif also knows problems within PML-N and among his key players like Ch. Nisar, Kh Asif on one hand and between Sanalullah and Abid Sher on the other hand. The PM has also discussed with his colleague how to get Imran disqualified and speed up cases against him regarding foreign funding. 

On the other hand, the opposition, particularly Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, is confident of not only victory in the SC but also very optimistic about its success in next elections. Imran in particular sees 'division in the PML, and also political exit of the Sharifs. The PTI has already decided to maintain pressure on the government, which includes holding a grand show in Islamabad after the SC order. 

Imran knows importance of the SC order and also knows that despite victory on the legal front, it would not automatically take him to Islamabad unless he defeated the PML in the Punjab. Despite all odds against Sharif, his focus would be to retain his position in his constituency in the biggest province. Therefore, he is particularly in consultation with Punjab leadership to built pressure in the Punjab. 

The PPP which politically emerged as a 'loser' after it committed a blunder by not becoming a party in this case as a petitioner, now sees the developing scenario healthy for its political space in Punjab. 

There is little doubt that the next political battle would be fought in Punjab, and in the changing scenario, the PPP would also take confrontation with the PTI who it believes has caused them political damage.

The PPP has announced 'Go Nawaz Go,' rallies in the Punjab Sunday, not only in a bid to build pressure on the PM but also to show its own presence in this PML VS PTI political battle.

While the hearing in the SC concluded after the decision was reserved, it is now up to the politicians and parties to cope with the situation. PM Sharif will lead the party in the next elections, even if decision goes against him and he resigns as PM on court order not under pressure. 

The PML-N has already said that they would accept and respect the SC order. The party has given Mian sahib task to decide. Reports suggest that the PM held one-on-one meeting with his brother Shahbaz before he held consultative meeting with other leaders over the SC proceedings and possible outcome.  It was an important meeting as the PML-N and Sharif under no circumstances would allow the PTI to take ground in the Punjab, as without winning Punjab, its dream to form government at center would remain a dream.

The PM and the PML-N looked 'down but not out,' from political scene and if the PM and the party decided not to go for fresh polls or dissolved assemblies and instead fight on both legal and political fronts, the opposition, particularly Imran Khan, may face a tough challenge in the Punjab. 

The PML-N leadership has already given Nawaz mandate to decide on his own in the given political circumstances and also in the light of the SC hearing, and secondly, to decide about the party's future strategy. 

So far, the PML-N looked intact but for the PM, it is important that his old party colleague and key figure Interior Minister Ch Nisar Ali must be onboard. If he decided to keep himself aside or distance from the PML, it would be a colossal loss, not only for the PML-N but also for the Sharifs in particular.

There is complete silence from Ch. Nisar and the last report from his quarters indicate that though he has strong reservations on how the party and the government had moved in this case, there are no indication as yet about his political exit from the PML-N. 

The two Sharifs have also discussed the situation in the Punjab in the post-Panama and also chances of 'defection', in case the SC order disqualifies the PM. 

While many believe that the PML-N, under no circumstances, would dissolve assemblies and go for fresh polls, if at all Sharif decides to step down after the SC orders, he will make the announcement.

Interesting political developments are expected next week and will also be a test case as to how far PM Sharif and CM Shahbaz would manage to keep the party intact at least till next elections. 

If Nawaz managed to keep the party united despite a few here and there defections, it may not be easy for Imran to get clear cut verdict in his favour in the next elections. What is major concern for the PM and PML, is the rising graphs of Imran which may further go up after the SC order. 

This writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO,

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Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO