Political scenario after Eid

Political temperature is likely to rise after Eid, as the opposition parties have already started countdown and pinned hopes on the final findings of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The investigating body would submit its final report on July 7 to meet the 60 days deadline, set by the special bench of the Supreme Court in the Panama leaks case.

For the opposition, the SC verdict would decide the political fate of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his children. If he is found guilty, it would pave the way for early elections in the country. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-N is ready for the possible showdown.

The JIT, which submitted its third report on Thursday, has so far maintained its secrecy, except for the photo leak of Husain Nawaz, during its probe. Beside other witnesses, PM Nawaz Sharif, his two children -- Husain Nawaz and Hasan Nawaz, and brother Shahbaz Sharif have already appeared before the JIT and allegedly faced tough questioning, while PM's son-in-law, Capt (retired) Safdar has also been summoned for this Saturday.

Political tension can lead to confrontation among the two key political rivals, with PTI Chairman Imran Khan in a mood to take his supporters to the street after Eid, while the PML-N has also geared up for a counter attack.

Whether the final decision would end Sharifs’ political career or rescue him; one thing is certain that politics after Eid would be a test for political maturity of our political elite. Much depends on the reaction and strategy of Sharifs and PML-N as well as of the opposition leader Imran Khan.

The PML can save the system through a political battle or could sink its ship like titanic. They can learn few lessons from the PPP how it saved the system at the cost of its PM. In Pakistani politics, July has its own significance, because political confrontation some 40 years back had derailed democracy, which Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) could have saved . But, it is also true that it is neither July 5, 1977 nor October 12, 1999, it is July 2017 and politicians have saved the system in 2014.

What the ruling party and the opposition need to understand is the fact that confrontation often leads to a military rule and as a result we have witnessed two long rules one by the late General Ziaul Haq, which lasted for 11 years, and the second by General Mushrraf for nine years.

Here the situation is somewhat different from 1977 or 1999. It is neither a political crisis nor a confrontation between civilian and military establishment. It’s a judicial battle and that too before a judiciary which is different from the past, which has already dumped the law of necessity.

If Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif comes out of crisis and gets the benefit of doubt, he can continue as the prime minister till June 2018. In case he loses the case, his party can still complete the reaming one year, through a makeshift PM, as happened in the PPP's previous government.

There is no doubt that disqualification of Sharif would be a huge political loss for the PML-N, and it would be extremely difficult to come out of the situation. But, he still has political cards to play. It is true that an adverse order would seriously challenge PM's moral and political standing, but by nominating someone else as the PM, he can still fight the legal and political battle.

The opposition, particularly Imran Khan, appears to be in a different mood and he has decided to exert pressure for a new election after Eid, through street protests. But if the parliament elects another PM from the ruling party, it would be difficult for the opposition to dislodge the PML-N government from within Constitutional framework.

The role of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) would be crucial in this situation, particularly when Imran Khan and the PTI appear to be in a confronting mood. They see major political victory for them in case of legal victory and in a mood for complete solo flight.

The PPP leadership is well aware of the consequences in case of PTI-PML-N confrontation becomes imminent. One thing is certain and that is, the PPP would not like to see PML-N government till March 2018 Senate elections. But, they also don't want any 'extra constitutional' action.

Although there is no immediate threat to democracy, confrontation can increase political uncertainty. Therefore, post-Eid political scenario is a bit disturbing the kind of reports coming from Islamabad in the aftermath of the SC final verdict on Panama leaks, expected in July.

The PPP, through its political role, rescued the PML-N government in 2014, when there were reports that Sharifs’ government would be dislodged after August 30, 2014 attack on Parliament and PTV.

The PTI has already worked out its plan in the post-SC decision and would exert street pressure after SC order. Therefore, “Dharna Part-3” is on the cards, which this time can be more aggressive. The PTI has already asked its organisations in all four provinces to get ready for the protest call of Imran Khan after Eid.

While the government or the ruling party are still tight-lipped over their strategy in case of PM's disqualification, it has decided to counter any possible agitation from the PTI. This is an unprecedented investigation as never before the most powerful political family been investigated so intensely since it has entered politics in the late 1970s.

The SC decision is expected within three weeks, depending on the final report of the JIT, which would be submitted by July 9. This clearly indicates that there will lots of political activities inside and outside the Parliament, after Eid.

While the PML-N and Sharifs still confident that they will win this legal battle and are also considering the option of an appeal if the final decision goes against them. The other option is political, which will be quite crucial for the party and the family and it all depends on what the PM and PML-N chief, Nawaz Sharif decide.

In 1999, when Sharifs faced trial and conviction and finally left the country, they nominated former President of PML Javed Hashmi to lead the party. It’s all together a different scenario as the family facing the trial in PML-N government. It’s closer to the situation faced by the PPP in its government when it’s Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani lost his seat and premiership after been convinced in contempt of court.

Many within the party looked towards his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, or his spouse Ms Kulsoom Nawaz, who fought a gallant political battle after Sharifs were in jail in General Musharraf's government.

One of the major tasks before Sharifs would be to keep the party intact. On the contrary, the party which is facing the crisis is the PPP, as there are reports of more leaders joining the PTI after the SC order.

If Sharif manages to keep the party intact in the aftermath of the SC order, even if it led to his disqualification, the PML-N would not face serious crisis.

The PML-N’s unity depends on Sharif family’s decision. Sharif's trial may not be a major political loss, but anything similar to 2001, which led to family's exile, may not be able to keep the party intact as happened under Musharraf, when it gave birth to PML-Q.

If the PML-N also decides to go all out to challenge the PTI on street and adopts aggressive politics, it can lead to direct confrontation. It will not be a colossal political loss but could also threaten the system.

One expects from both the PML-N and the PTI not to take the situation to the point of no return, and in case of Sharif's losing his seat, the system should continue and assemblies must complete their terms.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO