Obama’s progress

Barack Obama’s trip to India is meant to be historic – the first time a sitting US president has visited the country twice. But, from Pakistan’s point of view it has been plagued with problems from the start. First there was the implicit snub to Pakistan by not coming here, combined with his remarks on the eve of the India visit that Pakistan had to do more to shut down terrorist havens. Then Obama had to cut the trip short before it had even begun so that he could go to Saudi Arabia to deal with the political fallout of King Abdullah’s death. Even during this reduced trip, Obama will find that Pakistan is never far from the agenda. The ultra-hawkish Narendra Modi is sure to continually bring up Pakistan’s supposed support for militant groups and, with tensions along the Line of Control still high, will try to push Obama further away from Pakistan. Even though the US has recently admitted that the military operation in North Waziristan has disrupted the Haqqani Network, India refuses to be convinced and as a close US ally has considerable sway over it. Obama should resist the impulse to tell Modi what he wants to hear during the visit. But Obama may not do so because of the ‘economic reality’.
The agenda of the Obama visit – meant to coincide with India’s Republic Day, will be primarily economic. He is coming with a large entourage of corporate leaders who will be eager to conclude deals with India. While greater economic ties between the two countries are inevitable and unobjectionable on the face of it, both China and Pakistan will be looking on nervously. India is currently in a battle with China to be the primary regional power and any signs that the US is decisively shifting towards it will not be taken too well in Beijing. For Pakistan the worry may be that greater economic cooperation will automatically be followed by further political cooperation, leaving Pakistan out in the cold. This is why it was disturbing when a US spokesperson said it would be in the interests of all three countries if Obama did not visit Pakistan right now. The meaning of that was clear: the US has its own interests in India and will not allow issues like Kashmir to distract from it. Pakistan has to keep making its own case as loudly and forcefully as it can to ensure it does not suffer as a new era of US-India relations gets underway.