Power outages increase by 7-14 hours

ISLAMABAD: With sudden surge in mercury, the demand in electricity has risen at a time when the hydro generation is touching the lowest ebb up to 1952MW against hydel capacity of over 7,000MW. 

The situation has exposed the country to loadshedding of seven hours in urban centers and 14 hours in rural areas. The current electricity generation stands at 12,442MW whereas the demand has instantly surged up to over 16,000MW.

“So far the generation of 2,500 to 3,000MW electricity has been added to the system, but at the same time the growth in demand has also swelled to a large extent. The housing societies almost in all big cities have increased manifold resultantly triggering the massive increase in the demand. So the country is going to be exposed to loadshedding again and it may increase in the month of April,” a senior official told The News.

When the hydro generation comes in the system in the range of 6,500-7,000MW, in the months of June, July and August, the demand will be at the higher side. “So the power deficit continues to haunt in the forthcoming summer season.”

Sources say that IPPs are not generating the electricity as per their capacity because of the cash flow situation. So much so, some of the IPPs are currently non-operational. Against their capacity to generate electricity of 5,500MW, they are producing just 2,500-3,000MW of electricity on account of cash flow situation. They have already demanded sovereign guarantee and have sought immediate release of Rs48 billion. The buildup of IPPs dues with the government stands at Rs254 billion. The overall circular debt has risen to Rs414 billion excluding the Wapda dues and if the power sector loans of about Rs356 billion parked in the power holding company limited are included, then the circular debt has swelled to Rs825 billion. However, the ministry says that circular debt currently stands at Rs393 billion.

The official sources argue that the government’s shyness in spending the ‘hard earned foreign exchange reserves’ in purchasing the furnace oil, diesel and LNG in required quantity coupled with financial constrains of the government on account of circular debt are the main reasons to capitalise the existing potential of the electricity generation resulting in the increase in loadshedding.

However, spokesman for the ministry says that the loadshedding has increased because of massive reduction in hydro generation and it will increase in the next month. He says that in April the power outages will soar to 4 hours in cities and 6 hours in rural areas. However, when the hydro generation increases, the loadshedding will go on its earlier plan.

But when this correspondent made calls to many people in cities like Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and so much so the suburban areas of Islamabad such as Bhara Kahu, they all say that the loadshedding has increased to almost 7 hours and rural areas power outages have soared by 12 to 14 hours in the last 3-4 days.

It is pertinent to mention that federal secretary Younas Dagha claimed in an exclusive talk with The News on February 1, 2017 that in October, 2017, the existing loadshedding would be wiped out as the peak demand of 6,500MW would be met. However, over 9,000MW would be added by March 2018 that would say goodbye to the loadshedding once for all. However, the experts suggest that the more electricity generation will add more circular debt as on the front of the line losses and recovery, the government is sustaining mammoth loss which appears in the shape of addition to the circular debt every year. So much so the ministry says that that Nepra should allow 18 percent line losses in the tariff as against 15.2 percent. One present means loss of Rs15 billion. This means that the end consumers are paying Rs225 billion in the tariff per year against the inefficiency, theft and losses in the system and if 18 percent losses are included in the tariff, end consumers will pay Rs 270billion in a year.

The independent experts are of the view that in case the government increases the electricity generation, the existing circular debt will also increase unless the cost of the electricity generation is met. And in the presence of existing line losses, less recovery of electricity bills, and less tariff differential subsidy and more importantly inefficient power sector, the monster of circular debt will continue to haunt owing to which the governments in future will not be able to ensure the availability of electricity at the doorstep of the end consumers.