Moscow talks

The number of peace conferences held about Afghanistan is inversely proportional to actual peace in Afghanistan. As the Taliban once again make territorial gains with winter ending, the international community is gearing up for another summit, this time in Moscow. As with all such moots, this one – scheduled to be held on April 14 – is falling prey to power plays. The US, whose military presence in Afghanistan makes it impossible to reach a comprehensive peace agreement without its involvement, is staying away from the conference – ostensibly because it claims not to know what Russia’s objectives for the conference are. The real reason it has declined to participate is likely the accusations it has levelled against the Russians – that of supporting the Taliban. Perhaps the Trump administration also thought it was prudent to stay away from Moscow at a time when Washington is in a state of frenzy over FBI investigations over whether the Trump campaign colluded with Vladimir Putin to undermine Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. It is the Afghan Taliban that will dominate the conferences, with the Russians hinting that the group may even be invited to join, although no final discussion has been taken on their participation.

This is where Pakistan comes in. The international community believes Pakistan is the one country which has some leverage over the Taliban and so is crucial to any political settlement between the Taliban and the Afghanistan government. Pakistan is slated to attend the conference, although it has not yet decided who will represent the country in Moscow. For Pakistan, the conference is an opportunity to play a constructive role by trying to convince the Afghan government that military means alone will not bring peace to the country. This will be a difficult task given how suspicious Afghanistan is of our intentions, although the recent talks between the two countries in London followed by Nawaz Sharif’s decision to reopen the sealed border could help make this summit more productive than most. Even then, it is best not to be too optimistic about one conference. Such conferences have been a staple since the US invasion of Afghanistan, with the first one taking place that very year in Bonn. Since then, the conference circuit has served only to show how divided the international community is on the best possible path for Afghanistan and that Afghanistan itself is not sure if it wants to exercise only the military option against the Taliban or combine it with peace talks. That uncertainty is unlikely to be resolved in Moscow.