Talking water

The most dangerous aspect of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unremitting hostility towards Pakistan has been his threat to blow up the Indus Waters Treaty and block Pakistan’s access to water from the three western rivers of the Indus. Essentially, Modi has threatened war on Pakistan – which is what blocking the flow of water to us would be. The World Bank, which is the guarantor of the Indus Waters Treaty, responded by announcing a pause in the arbitration of disagreement over dams being constructed in India. The World Bank hoped that doing so would save the treaty. India has been agitating for the appointment of a panel of neutral experts to adjudicate on whether the Kishanganga and Ratle dams violated the treaty. Pakistan, meanwhile, wants the matter decided by a court of arbitration. There had been little hope of a breakthrough but now there are hopes that the two countries will inch towards progress after reports that a meeting would be set up between the secretaries of water and power of the countries. Such meetings are necessary to build a climate of trust and eventually reach an agreement, if not on the dams themselves, then at least on the best mechanism for ruling on the legality of the dams.

The chances that either neutral experts or a court of arbitration will rule in Pakistan’s favour are diminishing by the day. A recent UNDP report on water scarcity in Pakistan accused us of negligence in presenting cases of our water disputes with India to the World Bank or the Indus Water Commission. It also speculated that the Indus Waters Treaty would not last much longer because it did not specify how water should be divided between India and Pakistan in dry years or how much water India is allowed to store in dams. Ideally both countries would negotiate amendments to the treaty so that new realities like global climate change are acknowledged and accounted for. But Modi’s government is in no mood for compromise. The most Pakistan can hope for right now is that India agrees to hold secretary-level talks and there is a breakthrough on the process for adjudicated dam disputes. The essential problem of how to divide water equitably between the two countries, however, will still remain and there seems no realistic way of diplomatically resolving that at the moment.