New crisis cooking up

Irrespective of the outcome of Panama leaks issue, which is creeping up and is likely to change the political dynamics of our electoral politics, is long overdue. Census will be held in March this year, despite apprehensions of some political parties. What impact will it have on the next general elections?

The last census, which was held 18 years ago, had been accepted by majority but surprisingly even under a military ruler from 1999 to 2008 and under the PPP, from 2008 to 2013, the delays were caused due to political considerations. Even the incumbent PML-N government was not much interested, but was compelled by the SC order.

Census followed by delimitation would result in increase in the number of National Assembly (NA) and provincial assemblies’ seats before the 2018 elections, and will give ample opportunities to political parties to bring the youth to the Parliament.

Though a constitutional obligation for every government, it is the Supreme Court once again which had reminded the government of its responsibility and issued the final order.

The last census was held in 1998, and in the last 18 years we really don't know the actual increase in our population. Earlier, it was because of the SC that the Karachi operation was launched in the backdrop of a suo moto notice of the Karachi killings in 2011.

Rapid growth in population had never been an issue for our national parties or for the government and it would be interesting to see after census what our actual population is. But, for parties it is more a political and ethnic issue rather than an economic problem.

Thus, we may see more politics on the issue rather than a serious debate on the economic aspect. One of the key obstacle and the issue creeping up in thethree smaller provinces in particular is the status of Afghans, other than the Afghan refugees and other aliens.

Thus, the role of National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) would be of significance as apprehensions are that many Afghans and other aliens hold the Computerised National Identity Cards. Similarly, in Karachi, there are some four million Bengalis, who are now seeking political parties support to get themselves registered.

Successive governments have failed in fulfilling their constitutional obligations, mainly because of political reasons, though they are aware of the importance of census. Why our national and nationalist parties fail in understanding its significance and are still trying to make it controversial.

Census would be followed by delimitation of constituencies, which will increase the number of seats of the National and provincial assemblies to almost double, something which is keenly being monitored by the national and nationalist parties. But, one wonders whether these parties are really ready and have done their homework in this regard.

This increase would also provide a chance to mainstream parties to introduce new faces in politics, for which influential families are already active.

In Punjab, there can be more controversies in delimitation rather than on census itself as the Seraiki movement has almost died down in southern Punjab unlike in the smaller provinces, where nationalist are still strong pressure groups despite having little electoral support.

The most significant would be the outcomes of Karachi and Quetta population census, where apprehensions are of possible change of population balance among ethnic identities. PPP, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP), Jamaat-e-Islami, appear to be quite alert along with nationalist parties in Sindh province while in Balochistan, the issue looked sharply divided on ethnic lines between Balochistan Pashtun nationalists.

National Party and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, both ally of the PML-N, has taken different positions, making the issue more complicated for the federal government. Thus, the issue of the presence of large number of Afghans is likely to dominate the controversy before, during and after the census.

Census in the past had been delayed more because of political reasons or due to pressure from national and nationalist parties, some of whom even have expressed their apprehensions particularly in regard to the issue of Afghans and other aliens.

The voices of concern are coming from Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. How justified are their concerns and how well it would be addressed would be the test for the concerned departments including NADRA.

There is no doubt that the census would change the political dynamics and in the long-term will have positive impact too, provided it is held in fair and transparent manner. Despite reservations and apprehensions, the outcome of the 1998 census had been accepted.

However, it would be naive on the part of these parties to call for postponement of census, which is not only essential but also a constitutional obligation as well.

In Sindh, the government recently held very constructive meetings with the officials concerned, holding census, who had briefed the cabinet. Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, who had asked them as well as officials of Nadra to verify the status of some 0.5 million Afghans, who allegedly hold the CNIC, beside non-registered aliens.

The decision has already been taken that census would be held under army's supervision, the only institution which people find trustworthy. One of the major reasons behind apprehensions, expressed particularly by the smaller provinces over census in the past and even today, have been the ' mistrust,' over distribution of resources, though the provinces own record on utilising the resources had been very poor.

Constitution of Pakistan 1973 very amicably had addressed all these issues including provincial autonomy and distribution of resources. It had even addressed the issue of provincial autonomy but it will take us another 40 years to settle it through 18th amendment.

Had the issue of provincial autonomy, equal distribution of resources had been addressed and implemented after independence. We could have avoided 1971 crisis as a result of which the then majority province i.e. East Pakistan finally became Bangladesh.

In the last 70 years, the state has not been able to remove the existing mistrust of smaller provinces. However, the provincial governments, in the post-18th Amendment scenario, also failed to address the issue of governance despite getting important ministries like health, education and labour from Centre to the province.

Besides, another reason for the trust deficit had been the failure of Centre to hold meetings of Council of Common Interests (CCI) and National Finance Commission, on regular basis as per Constitutional requirement.

These are the basics of establishing trust and confidence provided by the constitution, but neither civilian governments nor military one followed these principles of ‘Live and let live’. Census must be held on time and after every four or five years. Not holding census is a gross violation of the constitution and depriving people of their basic and constitutional rights.

At the same time, the state must ensure that it would be held in most transparent manner so that it could be acceptable to all and any complaints must be duly addressed. It is also high time that we must now take a decision on Afghans, once and for all, as it is causing anxiety and frustration among Pakistanis, particularly in smaller provinces, some termed their presence a conspiracy against them.

  The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO