How will Trump deal with Pakistan?

NEW YORK: Pakistan was the  scene of Barack Obama’s arguably  greatest triumph as president  when he ordered American  commandos to kill Osama  bin Laden in Abbottabad on  May 2, 2011. He made the crucial  decisions about the raid including  the decision not to tell  anyone in Pakistan that the Central  Intelligence Agency had  found bin Laden’s hideout less  than a mile from Pakistan’s  Kakul Military Academy, the  equivalent ofWest Point.  By 2012, Obama and George  Bush had given Pakistan $25 billion  in military and economic  aid since 9/11 to fight Al-Qaeda,  but Obama was certain he  couldn’t trust the Pakistani government.  The raid will probably  be one of Obama’s most enduring  and best remembered legacies.  E  ight years ago, President  Barack Obama inherited a policy  toward Pakistan in tatters.  America had backed a military  dictatorship that protected the  Taliban and attacked India until  the Pakistani people overthrew  the dictator Pervez Musharraf.  Al-Qaeda was rampant across  the country and Osama bin  Ladenwas harbored in the front  yard of the country’s military  academy actively plotting  against America.  Just days after Obama’s election,  Pakistani terrorists attacked  the city of Mumbai and  killed scores of Indians and a  half dozen Americans.  InMarch 2009, Obama set as  his top priority to disrupt, dismantle  and defeat the al-Qaeda  infrastructure in Pakistanwhich  posed an imminent and significant  threat to the United States  and its allies. In 2011, bin Laden  was tracked down by the  agency and a Navy SEAL team  delivered justice.  Pakistan was not a partner  in the war against al-Qaeda for  the most part and several terrorist  groups like Lashkar-e-  Taiba (LeT), which are patronized  by the Pakistani army,  actively colludedwith Al-Qaeda.  Today, the Al-Qaeda infrastructure  in Pakistan ismuch reduced  but not destroyed. Bin  Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahri,  is still in Pakistan and is  still producing propaganda calling  for attacks on Americans.  Bin Laden’s son Hamza is also  active in Pakistan and may be  the next emir of al-Qaeda. The  threat is significantly reduced  but must be constantly monitored.  Almost a decade after assassination  of Benazir Bhutto,  which Al-Qaeda claims credit  for, a fragile and imperfect  democracy is in place. For the  first time in the 70 years of the  country’s history, one freely  elected government succeeded  another.  PrimeMinister Nawaz Sharif  has embarked on a massive infrastructure  development projectwith  aid fromChina thatwill  transform the country. He has  distanced Pakistan from Saudi  Arabia and sought to dampen  Sunni-Shia tensions at home  and abroad.  Washington is not responsible  for the progress toward  democracy in Pakistan, but unlike  some past administrations,  Obama has not obstructed it.  Too often American presidents  have been entranced by Pakistani  generals. Obama understood  they are the problem, not  the solution.  The generals have belatedly  waged war against some terrorist  groups that attack Pakistanis.  It is a tough campaign and is  far from over. At the same time,  the army continues to protect  and support groups like LeT,  which just eight years ago, attacked  Mumbai.  Obama did bring to justice  to the American who helped  plot the Mumbai attack, David  Headley, but the head of LeT,  Hafeez Saed, is still the darling  of the generals. He regularly appears  on television and at rallies  to denounce America, Israel  and India.  The army also provides  sanctuary and safe haven to the  Afghan Taliban. The Pakistanis  assist with fund raising, training,  and operations for the Taliban.  Pakistan covered up the  death of the Taliban’s founder  and leader Mullah Omar in  Karachi for two years to  strengthen its control on the  group and has hand-picked his  successors.  Last year, an American  drone killedMullah Omar’s first  successor in a strike inside Pakistan.  It was the only such strike  against the Taliban inside Pakistan  since the war in  Afghanistan began in 2001.  More such strikes would undermine  the safety that the Taliban  leadership enjoys.  Economic and military aid  to Pakistan has declined on  Obama’s watch. Support for aid  in Congress has declined significantly  as the extent of Pakistani  support for terrorist activity  has become clear.  The Abbottabad raid that  killed bin Laden was a turning  point; it dramatically illustrated  how little Pakistan was doing to  help fight al-Qaeda (or worse,  assisting it). Congress no longer  rubber stamps aid requests.  Some on the Hill argue Pakistan  should be listed on the State  Department list of state sponsors  of terrorism. President  George HWBush seriously considered  that option in 1992; his  three successors did not.  Pakistan has the fastest  growing nuclear arsenal in the  world. The Babur-3 SLCMhas a  range of 450 kilometers and  provides Pakistan with a secure  second strike capability. Pakistan  is expanding its submarine  fleet with Chinese assistance.  The United States has no  effective policy toward Pakistan’s  nuclear program.  The president never visited  Pakistan in his tenure. His cabinet  officials gradually cut back  visits to the country. Attention  to Pakistan seemed to fade in  the last years of the administration.  The incoming administration  has to deal with a nation of  almost 200 million people  armed with a fully-tested nuclear  arsenal which is both a  victim and a patron of terrorism.  P  akistan has been at the  root of crisis for the last several  administrations. Bill Clinton  faced nuclear tests and a dangerous  border war in 1999 with  India; George W. Bush was surprised  by 9/11 and another  Indo-Pakistan crisis; and  Obama dealt with Mumbai and  Abbottabad.  The next administration will  likely be tested early.