India’s dangerous moves

If there is one thing that made the peaceful end of the cold-war period possible, it is that the nuclear powers always behaved responsibly and never resorted to a direct exchange of nuclear threats. Humanity survived the cold war because the American and Soviet leaders were well aware of the fact that nuclear weapons were not meant to be used.

Unfortunately, the future does not look so promising for the poor people of South Asia because India’s current leadership seems to be totally unaware of the unimaginable destruction caused by nuclear weapons. After failing to encourage instability at the sub-conventional level in Pakistan, the Indian government is desperately looking for other options to exacerbate interstate tensions within the region.

For the past week, rumours have been rife that the Modi government is contemplating the possibility of scrapping the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan. Pakistani policymakers have largely refrained from overreacting, but it is clear that our security establishment will not take things lying down if India continues with its irresponsible behaviour. India’s stubbornness has already sabotaged the 19th Saarc Summir, dealing a severe blow to hopes for progress towards regional peace.

One wonders if the common people of India have any idea how dangerous these shenanigans can be? India may have successfully diverted media attention away from the growing human rights violations in Kashmir by raising tensions along the Line of Control but such kind of a myopic and inward-looking approach can result in unintended consequences.

Many respectable Indian journalists and news anchors have also joined the chorus of rabid nationalism, provoking their government to sanction military action against this Pakistan.

This outbreak of mass hysteria among the political and media elites in India shows how unaware they are of the potential dangers and risks of war between two nuclear-armed neighbours. There might be some reasons to be concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, but the international community must not turn a blind eye to India’s hypocritical nuclear doctrine, along with a rapidly growing nuclear programme.

India’s nuclear establishment is going down a potentially dangerous path due to the overriding influence of nuclear scientists and technical bureaucracies. Armed with more than 110 nuclear weapons, of which at least 50 are operationally deployed, India’s current nuclear trajectory would likely spark new tensions in the region.

India has already produced almost 5.7 tons of military-grade plutonium and if it continues to invest in the weapons industry at the same pace, its nuclear arsenal would consist of more than 200 weapons by 2025.

India will continue to instigate a high degree of unconventional and proxy wars in the coming months to build pressure on Pakistan. These sub-conventional conflicts might not involve the use of the regular military force, but their propensity to escalate to limited wars can entail unpredictably high levels of violence. India’s goal in such conflicts will be to attack particular sites of strategic importance in the region.

Many military experts are of the view that Pakistan and India could become engaged in a limited war, entailing the use of nuclear weapons. India’s military establishment is in a paranoid state, seeking to promote violence at the level of insurgency and terrorism. Indian officials maintain that their country would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict but recent moves by the Indian military are raising uncertainty levels for Pakistan.

India does have the capability to pursue wars of limited aims. What makes these conflicts more dangerous is the fear of operational failures and there is no surety to the fact that the war would be terminated once the initial goals are achieved. In addition, once initiated, the war might not remain limited in aims and consequences throughout the course of the campaign.

So it is almost inevitable that, with limited nuclear war, there will be large uncertainties about the scope of the conflict.

Ajit Doval, India’s national security adviser, has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of a limited war in South Asia, threatening to separate Balochistan from Pakistan. But he should not forget that our military establishment would find it hard to desist from the use of nuclear weapons if India imposed a war on Pakistan.

The people of India and Pakistan cannot afford to live in the shadow of nuclear annihilation anymore. Sooner rather than later, India’s people will have to move forward to rein in their government. Otherwise, no one will be able to save us.

Email: rizwanasghar5@unm.edu