Rabi crops to get 15 percent less water in current season

LAHORE: Pakistan braces for one of severe levels of water shortages for agriculture sector in recent times mainly due to non-filling of Tarbela Dam to maximum capacity, fretfully causing a cut in production of key crops during upcoming Rabi season, officials said on Thursday.

As per initial estimates, an official said: “it is feared that nearly 15 percent shortage in actual surface water availability may occur in upcoming Rabi season.” “It simply means that about 5.46 million acres feet of less water will be available for irrigation purposes during said period. In total we are expecting availability of surface water to the tune of 30.94 MAF against average system uses of 36.4 per cent in Rabi 2016-17.”

According to date available with The News, the water deficit of projected 15 percent in coming Rabi season is huge given the fact that it is highest in the last five years (2012-15) and fourth highest level of water shortage in the last ten years (2007-17).

According to an official document, Rabi crop season begins from October 1, and its crops including food staple wheat, gram, lentil (masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are harvested in April-May. Owing to predominantly irrigated nature of the farming, Pakistan’s agricultural output is closely linked with the availability of irrigation water.

Against possible 15 percent shortfall in demand and supply of irrigation water in Rabi 2016-17, the water availability remained at 32.9 MAF during Rabi season 2015-16, which is 0.6 percent less than Rabi 2014-15 and 9.6 percent less than the normal availability of average uses of 36.4 MAF.

In the post-Mangla raising period, which adds close to three million acres feet of conservation capacity on river Jhelum, water shortages in late Rabi and early Kharif season have been minimised to negligible period. However, main factor of water shortage in coming Rabi is a surprise for many as likelihood of impounding river Indus water into Tarbela Dam to its highest storage level has been very bright lately.

Nonetheless, despite clear advice of Indus River System Authority (IRSA), the top water regulator, about filling of Tarbela Dam by following accelerated SOPs of filling the dame at its later stage, Water & Power Development Authority (Wapda), the operator of water reservoirs, failed to raise level of dam to its maximum conservation level of 1,550 ft in spite of having good inflows.

Since then, the top management of IRSA and Wapda has been accusing each other for allowing excessive outflows from the lake of Tarbela Dam and its resultant non-filling. "We asked WAPDA in writing on July 28 to follow that pattern of conserving water to ensure Tarbela filing but to no avail," said IRSA chairman. The other pattern of SOPs prepared by Wapda was meant to take route of swift impounding of water into lake.

On the other hand, Wapda spokesman insisted that the authority developed certain SOPs for filling of Tarbela reservoir while keeping safety of the dam in view. As per the SOPs, Wapda has to achieve 1,510 feet mark in Tarbela reservoir above mean sea level upto July 10 every year, but during the current year the said level was achieved ahead of target i.e. on July 3. It was being expected that the maximum level of 1,550 feet will be attained six days earlier than the deadline i.e. August 20, 2016. The filling of Tarbela reservoir was going well and all stakeholders were comfortable that reservoir will be filled upto the maximum conservation level.

Wapda spokesman said, IRSA increased its indent from 190,000 cusecs to 225,000 cusecs from July 22 to 27, 2016 which resulted in reservoir depletion from 1,519.4 feet to 1,515.24 feet. In order to attain the previous level of 1,519.4 feet, it took eight more days which affected the earlier filling process.

Wapda spokesman claimed that IRSA was quite confident with the predictions of Pakistan Meteorological Department for 20 percent more rains during the current monsoon. Pakistan Meteorological Department in the late monsoon revised its earlier predictions from 20 percent more rains to 10 percent less rains. This alarmed IRSA, resultantly IRSA contacted Wapda for rapid filling of Tarbela reservoir but it was not in line with the SOPs for Tarbela filling.

Filling of Tarbela reservoir could be possible in just seven days if IRSA adjusted its indent and allowed Wapda to fill the reservoir one foot per day as per the SOP, he concluded. Notwithstanding, whosoever is to blame for this fiasco, the end result is shortfall of about one MAF of precious water in the lake of Tarbela ahead of start of Rabi season. Although, water experts believe that such shortfall is manageable and would barely affect output of crops, especially wheat, it is indeed a grave loss of water resources.