Security or defence budget

Following the decisive victory over India, a debate has begun in Pakistan about whether to increase the defence budget or not. The proponents argue in favor of increasing defense spending, while others question the necessity of such an increase. Both proponents and opponents have justifications for their perspectives. Supporters argue, unfortunately, Pakistan is in the neighborhood of a country, India, that always seeks to destabilize Pakistan, necessitating a handsome budget. Indian armed forces have extensive resources at their disposal, so Pakistan has no choice but to raise the defense budget.

In contrast, opponents contend that Pakistan has limited resources and is undergoing a financial and economic crisis. Additionally, there is potential to adjust and reorganize defense expenditures. For instance, Pakistan could reduce non-combat spending and redirect those funds to the combat sector. Therefore, there is no need to allocate more resources to defense.

Aside from this debate, the ground realities suggest that Pakistan needs to adopt a comprehensive approach, with the focus on the security budget, not just the defence budget. Why? Pakistan is at the heart of geopolitics, also known as the Great Game in the region and beyond. The global powers are pushing Pakistan to align with their respective camps. The USA and its allies have been forcing Pakistan to join them and pursue their policies, especially to undermine China and exit CPEC. However, Pakistan refused to follow them and opted to follow an independent path, which the USA and its allies did not like. They started to create challenges for Pakistan at multiple levels, including security challenges. India viewed this as an excellent opportunity to settle the score with Pakistan and offered its services to the alliance.

India, with the support of its allies, started to create hitches for Pakistan on the border. After getting support from Western allies, India has become an irrational state. It lives in a bubble, assuming it is a great power and can do anything with impunity. Thus, India initiated attempts to fuel the conflict at the border, and in May 2025, it attacked Pakistan based on self-assumed reasons. Pakistan had to fight an undesired and uncalled-for war. With the blessing of Allah, Pakistan defeated India on all fronts. It was possible because Pakistan’s armed forces were well-prepared and well-equipped, thanks to timely investment in defence. Instead of learning any lesson from its defeat, India is still posturing to engage in a new conflict. Thus, the Pakistani armed forces must remain vigilant at all times; for this purpose, Pakistan will need to invest in building the necessary capacity to counter these threats.

Second, on the domestic front, the leading players of the Great Game, the Western alliance, have joined hands with India to create challenges for Pakistan, especially on the domestic front. They are inciting violence and terrorism under the guise of ethnicity, sub-national identities, and religious differences. Third, after the sudden withdrawal of US and allied forces from Afghanistan, security challenges for Pakistan have been complicated. The terrorist organizations are exploiting the transition period of Afghanistan and using Afghanistan as a launching pad for their terrorist activities in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistani-origin terrorist organizations such as BLA also seek shelter in Afghanistan.

In this context, Pakistan has to fight a multidimensional war, from border conflicts to combating terrorism. It necessitates the involvement of numerous institutions, both civil and military. Hence, out of necessity, Pakistan has to allocate significant financial resources to tackle border threats, terrorism, and violence at the domestic front.

In this context, the debates should not solely concentrate on the defense budget; instead, Pakistan should focus on the security budget. The increase in budget should not be for defence only, but for the security of Pakistan. However, Pakistan should adopt a needs-based approach to allocate the budget after conducting a detailed analysis of the requirements. Moreover, analysis should be done by segregating the needs into two categories: armed forces and civilian institutions. A bird-eye view analysis indicates that there is a need to increase the budget for both the armed forces and civilian institutions.

The armed forces need an increase because the armed forces are dealing with an irrational and aggressive neighbor, India, which is senselessly increasing its defense expenditures. In 2025, India allocated US$78.7 billion, representing a 9.5% increase from the previous year. It is expected that after the May 2025 war, India will further increase its defence budget. Following its defeat at the hands of Pakistan, it plans to purchase modern and sophisticated military equipment, including advanced artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, surveillance systems, etc. It is also seeking new fighter jets following the destruction of the Rafales. There are rumors that India is considering purchasing the F-35 from the USA.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan has no option except to build its capacity and capability to match the Indian threat. Thus, defence allocations need to be increased. It is worth noting that policymakers are aware of the needs of the armed forces. However, it is pertinent to highlight that Pakistan should conduct a thorough analysis of the defence budget for both combat and non-combat sectors before making further allocations. It will help identify the necessary allocations and shut the doors to negativity and allegations.

Simultaneously, Pakistan should conduct a needs assessment of civil security institutions, especially for the Police. It is as vital as military expenditures. It is an established fact that the police act as the first line of defence against terrorism and violence. It has deep roots at ground level and helps identify potential threats and unwanted personnel well in time. Moreover, the police are trained to deal with civilians and work out solutions at the grassroots level. The global history of combating terrorism or unrest also highlights that police always play a leading role in curbing terrorism, violence, and turmoil in the name of ethnicity or any other identity. Therefore, all the advanced countries generously invest in building and strengthening police institutions.

Unfortunately, in the case of Pakistan, the police force is a weak institution. It severely lacks resources, including manpower, technology, and, most importantly, financial support. The financial allocations for the police are inadequate, even for routine operations, let alone for countering terrorism. This lack of resources hinders the development of modern investigative techniques and policing tools. Additionally, the police suffer from poor living conditions and inadequate transportation facilities, which significantly affect their mental health. They also lack sophisticated weaponry and modern tools to address cyber threats. Furthermore, the shortage of resources impacts the skill development of officers.

These factors greatly influence the performance and expose police to threats. It is expected that the situation will be complicated in the new unfolding regional dynamics and the Great Game. It will have to counter challenges arising from sectarianism, ethnic problems, and foreign-sponsored terrorism. In this context, Pakistan will need to invest massively in its police force. The story of other civilian institutes is almost identical to that of the police.

Thus, in the coming budget, Pakistan should focus equally on civilian institutions, as it has on the military. Otherwise, the efforts to counter terrorism and other challenges will face setbacks. It will undermine the military’s achievements at the border, which will not be a desired outcome.